Only looking at a 5% trading move for each trade, never a long term trader or investor
After US election, market will focus on Concern-of-the-year i.e. O&G loan. And for next year, it will be SME loan.
Waiting for US election to be over before entering, best to be safe
Waiting for US election to be over before entering, best to be safe
I have a haunch that DBS' npat cld top SGD6 bil in the not too distant future - possibly within the next 3 to 5 yrs.
I never forget the frivilous call on Valuetronics sometime back. So many calls all way off. Anyway, how well is mb doing?
This is one house that I nver listen to ther call.
Whatever our banks are close to their bottom and has report good set of results. ( maybe they wan to buy in lah)
I never forget the frivilous call on Valuetronics sometime back. So many calls all way off. Anyway, how well is mb doing?
This is one house that I nver listen to ther call.
Whatever our banks are close to their bottom and has report good set of results. ( maybe they wan to buy in lah)
- The Call
This analyst isn&rsquo t buying the banks' results. Should you?
By Gwyneth Yeo / theedgemarkets.com.sg | November 7, 2016 : 1:19 PM MYT
Translated by Google Translator:
选 择 语 言
SINGAPORE (Nov 7): Maybank Kim Eng is maintaining its &ldquo negative&rdquo recommendation on Singapore banks, in anticipation of further asset quality deterioration, even as the local lenders have focused on revenue generation in 3QFY16.
Ng Li Hiang, Maybank Kim Eng&rsquo s analyst, noted that the three lenders had grown market share in domestic loans and sought out new sources of loan growth during the quarter amid falling customer spreads, while higher non-interest income and cost management arrested declining earnings.
DBS Group and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation posted a respective 24% and 25% increase in non-interest income, driven by wealth management fees and net trading income, which helped to mitigate the higher provisions and poor performance in its net interest income. United Overseas Bank&rsquo s non-interest income fell 5% from the gain on divestment of investment securities in 3QFY15.
All three banks reported higher provisions due to the rapid asset quality deterioration, particularly in the O& G sector.
Ng had earlier highlighted that &ldquo shrinking China&rsquo s trade loans from more attractive onshore borrowing rates would result in a retreat of capital back into Singapore or banks would have to find new sources of growth to fill the vacuum&rdquo .
Given UOB&rsquo s small China exposure compared with its peers, the bank was likely to be least affected. As such, for loans growth in constant currency terms, UOB had the strongest loan growth of 7%, compared with DBS&rsquo s 5% and OCBC&rsquo s 0%. &ldquo OCBC&rsquo s flat growth also underlies its more cautious stance in this landscape to enter new relationships with new clients,&rdquo said Ng in a note on Monday.
Maybank Kim Eng&rsquo s preferred stock is UOB, for which it has a &ldquo hold&rdquo rating, given its minimal exposure to the oil & gas sector and China.
Ng points out that system loans contracted 5% during the quarter, yet banks have been lending out faster at 4% to 5% compared to the system, and the bulk of them were for housing loans in Singapore. Housing loans grew by 6% to 10% compared with the 3% growth for the system, and Ng says he does not rule out the possibility that &ldquo banks may undercut each other in the pricing for housing loans&rdquo .
As it stands, customer spreads have already fallen across the board between 2.015% and 2.13% in 3QFY16. Ng believes the reduced spreads could be due to the lack of a repricing interval from lower rates, a heightened risk environment which is impacting credit spreads and risk premiums, or a higher loan volume that is being driven at the expense of lower loan pricing.
To be sure, while loans in Singapore have risen by 1% - 2% for DBS and OCBC, Ng also pointed out that the weakened economic prospects in Singapore have led to the banks seeking growth in other countries.
For 3QFY16, DBS&rsquo s lending to &ldquo Others&rdquo in the region rose 32% y-o-y and was &ldquo broad-based across geographies and industries&rdquo . At OCBC, lending to the &ldquo Rest of the World&rdquo rose 7% in a similar broad based fashion across different industries. For UOB, loans in &ldquo Others&rdquo region rose 16% due in part to the financial institutions lending in Australia.
Shares in DBS, UOB and OCBC are trading at $15.07, $18.48, and $8.48 on Monday.
Price is factoring in a Hillary vctory.....everyone so confident now, what is really going to happen on Wednesday
This is one house that I nver listen to ther call.
Whatever our banks are close to their bottom and has report good set of results. ( maybe they wan to buy in lah)
- The Call
This analyst isn&rsquo t buying the banks' results. Should you?
By Gwyneth Yeo / theedgemarkets.com.sg | November 7, 2016 : 1:19 PM MYT
Translated by Google Translator:
SINGAPORE (Nov 7): Maybank Kim Eng is maintaining its &ldquo negative&rdquo recommendation on Singapore banks, in anticipation of further asset quality deterioration, even as the local lenders have focused on revenue generation in 3QFY16.
Ng Li Hiang, Maybank Kim Eng&rsquo s analyst, noted that the three lenders had grown market share in domestic loans and sought out new sources of loan growth during the quarter amid falling customer spreads, while higher non-interest income and cost management arrested declining earnings.
DBS Group and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation posted a respective 24% and 25% increase in non-interest income, driven by wealth management fees and net trading income, which helped to mitigate the higher provisions and poor performance in its net interest income. United Overseas Bank&rsquo s non-interest income fell 5% from the gain on divestment of investment securities in 3QFY15.
All three banks reported higher provisions due to the rapid asset quality deterioration, particularly in the O& G sector.
Ng had earlier highlighted that &ldquo shrinking China&rsquo s trade loans from more attractive onshore borrowing rates would result in a retreat of capital back into Singapore or banks would have to find new sources of growth to fill the vacuum&rdquo .
Given UOB&rsquo s small China exposure compared with its peers, the bank was likely to be least affected. As such, for loans growth in constant currency terms, UOB had the strongest loan growth of 7%, compared with DBS&rsquo s 5% and OCBC&rsquo s 0%. &ldquo OCBC&rsquo s flat growth also underlies its more cautious stance in this landscape to enter new relationships with new clients,&rdquo said Ng in a note on Monday.
Maybank Kim Eng&rsquo s preferred stock is UOB, for which it has a &ldquo hold&rdquo rating, given its minimal exposure to the oil & gas sector and China.
Ng points out that system loans contracted 5% during the quarter, yet banks have been lending out faster at 4% to 5% compared to the system, and the bulk of them were for housing loans in Singapore. Housing loans grew by 6% to 10% compared with the 3% growth for the system, and Ng says he does not rule out the possibility that &ldquo banks may undercut each other in the pricing for housing loans&rdquo .
As it stands, customer spreads have already fallen across the board between 2.015% and 2.13% in 3QFY16. Ng believes the reduced spreads could be due to the lack of a repricing interval from lower rates, a heightened risk environment which is impacting credit spreads and risk premiums, or a higher loan volume that is being driven at the expense of lower loan pricing.
To be sure, while loans in Singapore have risen by 1% - 2% for DBS and OCBC, Ng also pointed out that the weakened economic prospects in Singapore have led to the banks seeking growth in other countries.
For 3QFY16, DBS&rsquo s lending to &ldquo Others&rdquo in the region rose 32% y-o-y and was &ldquo broad-based across geographies and industries&rdquo . At OCBC, lending to the &ldquo Rest of the World&rdquo rose 7% in a similar broad based fashion across different industries. For UOB, loans in &ldquo Others&rdquo region rose 16% due in part to the financial institutions lending in Australia.
Shares in DBS, UOB and OCBC are trading at $15.07, $18.48, and $8.48 on Monday.
- The Call
This analyst isn&rsquo t buying the banks' results. Should you?
By Gwyneth Yeo / theedgemarkets.com.sg | November 7, 2016 : 1:19 PM MYT
选 择 语 言 ▼ SINGAPORE (Nov 7): Maybank Kim Eng is maintaining its &ldquo negative&rdquo recommendation on Singapore banks, in anticipation of further asset quality deterioration, even as the local lenders have focused on revenue generation in 3QFY16.
Ng Li Hiang, Maybank Kim Eng&rsquo s analyst, noted that the three lenders had grown market share in domestic loans and sought out new sources of loan growth during the quarter amid falling customer spreads, while higher non-interest income and cost management arrested declining earnings.
DBS Group and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation posted a respective 24% and 25% increase in non-interest income, driven by wealth management fees and net trading income, which helped to mitigate the higher provisions and poor performance in its net interest income. United Overseas Bank&rsquo s non-interest income fell 5% from the gain on divestment of investment securities in 3QFY15.
All three banks reported higher provisions due to the rapid asset quality deterioration, particularly in the O& G sector.
Ng had earlier highlighted that &ldquo shrinking China&rsquo s trade loans from more attractive onshore borrowing rates would result in a retreat of capital back into Singapore or banks would have to find new sources of growth to fill the vacuum&rdquo .
Given UOB&rsquo s small China exposure compared with its peers, the bank was likely to be least affected. As such, for loans growth in constant currency terms, UOB had the strongest loan growth of 7%, compared with DBS&rsquo s 5% and OCBC&rsquo s 0%. &ldquo OCBC&rsquo s flat growth also underlies its more cautious stance in this landscape to enter new relationships with new clients,&rdquo said Ng in a note on Monday.
Maybank Kim Eng&rsquo s preferred stock is UOB, for which it has a &ldquo hold&rdquo rating, given its minimal exposure to the oil & gas sector and China.
Ng points out that system loans contracted 5% during the quarter, yet banks have been lending out faster at 4% to 5% compared to the system, and the bulk of them were for housing loans in Singapore. Housing loans grew by 6% to 10% compared with the 3% growth for the system, and Ng says he does not rule out the possibility that &ldquo banks may undercut each other in the pricing for housing loans&rdquo .
As it stands, customer spreads have already fallen across the board between 2.015% and 2.13% in 3QFY16. Ng believes the reduced spreads could be due to the lack of a repricing interval from lower rates, a heightened risk environment which is impacting credit spreads and risk premiums, or a higher loan volume that is being driven at the expense of lower loan pricing.
To be sure, while loans in Singapore have risen by 1% - 2% for DBS and OCBC, Ng also pointed out that the weakened economic prospects in Singapore have led to the banks seeking growth in other countries.
For 3QFY16, DBS&rsquo s lending to &ldquo Others&rdquo in the region rose 32% y-o-y and was &ldquo broad-based across geographies and industries&rdquo . At OCBC, lending to the &ldquo Rest of the World&rdquo rose 7% in a similar broad based fashion across different industries. For UOB, loans in &ldquo Others&rdquo region rose 16% due in part to the financial institutions lending in Australia.
Shares in DBS, UOB and OCBC are trading at $15.07, $18.48, and $8.48 on Monday.
Not at all. short or long after the election is perfectly fine but close position after a 5% run. buying now is the risky one.
Too risky to gamble now
Get ready to either long or short next Wednesday, it will be at least a 5% move.
Get ready to either long or short next Wednesday, it will be at least a 5% move.
That's why time frame is too long for such returns that make it unattractive. Only dividend payout is. circumstances is uncertain.
The amount I invested cannot make profit enough to make me so generous 🙂
Ooh long long x friend. Tot u gonna buy me a round the world trip with this time fram
