My apology, sleepy eye and calculated wrongly. My SI estimated value is SGD4.64 and no change to ideal entry price.
Thank you...
Posted: October 27, 2016 11:08 pmPosted by: @willisow
Subject: Sembcorp Industries (SI) ValuationSI announced its Q3 and 9 months financial result. Its marked the first operating growth for 2016 at 1.2% for Q3 on a year on year basis after registered a declined of 9% for Q1 and 19% for Q2. As such, I have my assessment of its business value at SGD4.83 and ideal entry price at SGD2.58 and below. If prices continue to fall, the next ideal entry will be SGD2.07 which represent a 60% decline in its operating earnings.
SI situation is very similar to M1 but posed an even more attractive deal than M1. Current prices represented a decline in 50-55% of operating earnings where else in reality its operating earning only fell by 11%. Thus, its stock price fell more than its earnings and represented a huge arbitrage profit between the current price and its business value. Although a single quarter postive operating earning cant be used as an indicator that its business have turned around, we will still need to monitor its progress and seek confirmation from its coming last quarter result. However, my personal view is, it is a STRONG BUY.
In addition, the current adjusted PE ratio of SI at 2.76 is the lowest for the past 11 years and it is even lower than 2008 (financial crisis) which was at 4.41. Thus, both PER and its business value indicated that it is a very cheap stock. Lastly, I have the below attachment of various analyst indicated value as a second opinion for everybody. Thank you 🙂
SGX : Sembcorp Ind
Last Price
Avg Target Price
Upside/Downside
Price Call2.48
3.04
+0.56 (22.58%)
* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.
** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).
Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source News 29/09/2016
2.58
3.10
+0.52 (20.16%)
BUY
DBS Vickers
23/09/2016
2.58
3.29
+0.71 (27.52%)
BUY
UOB KayHian
21/09/2016
2.60
3.07
+0.47 (18.08%)
BUY
OCBC
23/08/2016
2.73
3.07
+0.34 (12.45%)
BUY
OCBC
03/08/2016
2.75
3.07
+0.32 (11.64%)
BUY
OCBC
03/08/2016
2.75
2.66
-0.09 (3.27%)
HOLD
CIMB
05/05/2016
2.74
3.07
+0.33 (12.04%)
BUY
OCBC
Hi pal,
you are most welcome. Due to different approach, i do not agreed in using TA as a consistent method for investment, which i had my explanations given in some of my previous posts. Nevertheless, a disagreement does not mean that I hate TA 🙂 im just expressing my view in an objective manner. As this thread is meant for both practical and academic discussion in relation to investment, you are always welcome to particpate and share your knowledge and experience. Using real life case study is the best way to learn than relying on theories.
As M1 prices are already below its business value hence it may not be a good example to test TA effectiveness. I suggest you can apply TA on this HK bank known as Hang Seng Bank and see what is the suggested entry price. My own ideal entry is between HKD100-HKD105 and currently it is trading about HKD142. If TA show that you should buy at a price higher than my ideal entry, from a value investment perspective, any price that bought above the ideal entry do not carry an adequate margin of safety, thus our capital can b at risk.
However, the ideal entry price does not mean that the actual share price is going to fall to that level. it is not a prediction. What it mean is purchase at this level will have our capital protected, not immediately but as time goes by bcos we are buying at previous reccesson condition. Hence, both TA and value investing are unlikely to complement each other bcos of the different in approach. TA focus on the stock price movement where else value investing focus on the real economy.
You can try out Hang Seng Bank when you have the time, as i said using real life cases is the best to expedite our learning curve. Thank you 🙂
Posted: October 27, 2016 10:13 pmPosted by: @joseeng
Thank u bro willisow for your generous sharing and insights to value investing. I am also an advocate towards value investing except I do incorporate some TA (which I believe u said it's hard to implement both FA and TA together) in as my entry level. Take M1 as example, knowing it to be undervalued, I target my entry levels to be between $2-$2.10 if the $2.20 critical support cannot hold.
FA-wise, I have to say there's more for me to learn from u and other experienced Bros here. Will be camping here for more knowledge sharing. Tks
Subject: Sembcorp Industries (SI) Valuation
SI announced its Q3 and 9 months financial result. Its marked the first operating growth for 2016 at 1.2% for Q3 on a year on year basis after registered a declined of 9% for Q1 and 19% for Q2. As such, I have my assessment of its business value at SGD4.83 and ideal entry price at SGD2.58 and below. If prices continue to fall, the next ideal entry will be SGD2.07 which represent a 60% decline in its operating earnings.
SI situation is very similar to M1 but posed an even more attractive deal than M1. Current prices represented a decline in 50-55% of operating earnings where else in reality its operating earning only fell by 11%. Thus, its stock price fell more than its earnings and represented a huge arbitrage profit between the current price and its business value. Although a single quarter postive operating earning cant be used as an indicator that its business have turned around, we will still need to monitor its progress and seek confirmation from its coming last quarter result. However, my personal view is, it is a STRONG BUY.
In addition, the current adjusted PE ratio of SI at 2.76 is the lowest for the past 11 years and it is even lower than 2008 (financial crisis) which was at 4.41. Thus, both PER and its business value indicated that it is a very cheap stock. Lastly, I have the below attachment of various analyst indicated value as a second opinion for everybody. Thank you 🙂
| SGX : Sembcorp Ind | SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD |
| Last Price | Avg Target Price | Upside/Downside | Price Call |
| 2.48 | 3.04 | |
| * Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months. |
| ** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable). |
Thank u bro willisow for your generous sharing and insights to value investing. I am also an advocate towards value investing except I do incorporate some TA (which I believe u said it's hard to implement both FA and TA together) in as my entry level. Take M1 as example, knowing it to be undervalued, I target my entry levels to be between $2-$2.10 if the $2.20 critical support cannot hold.
FA-wise, I have to say there's more for me to learn from u and other experienced Bros here. Will be camping here for more knowledge sharing. Tks
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The share price of GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) -0.100 (-0.312%)
Short selling $62.89M Ratio 17.738%
softened this morning. At noon yesterday, the company announced that the adjusted EBITDA in 3Q16 rose 28% to $2.7 billion revenue rose 5% yearly and 6% quarterly to $12.9 billion mass revenue rose 17% yearly to $5.4 billion while VIP business revenue fell 4% yearly to $6.1 billion.
15 brokers have listed their latest ratings and target prices on the stock:
Brokers/ Ratings/ Target prices (HK$)
CIMB/ Accumulate/ 39.91-> 41.78
Bank of America Merrill Lynch/ Buy/ 35.6-> 37.8
Citigroup/ Buy/ 37.5
JPMorgan/ Overweight/ 31-> 37
Credit Suisse/ Outperform/ 34-> 36.5
CICC/ Buy/ 32-> 35.6
Morgan Stanley/ Overweight/ 33.4-> 35.5
Bernstein/ Outperform/ 29.75-> 34.5
Goldman Sachs/ Neutral/ 32.9-> 33.8
HSBC/ Hold/ 32.2-> 32.9
UOB Kay Hian/ Hold/ 28.5-> 30
Daiwa/ Outperform/ 31.8
Nomura/ Neutral/ 29.9-> 30.7
Kim Eng/ Hold/ 26.35-> 28.8
Macquarie/ Neutral/ 27
Posted: October 26, 2016 2:37 pmPosted by: @willisowSubject: Galaxy Entertainment Valuation
My favourite investment prospect, Galaxy Entertainment just announced its Q3 financial result and once again posted a stellar 28% increased in its Q3 operating performance. 6% growth in Q1 result, 22% growth in Q2 result and 28% growth in Q3 result, from past 3 quarters of data, we can see a continous improvement in the business of galaxy entertainment and thus it send a very strong indication that macau casino has turned around. Based on current earning, my valuation for galaxy entertainment revised up from HKD30 to HKD31.89.
As written in my post few weeks back when i again took a position with galaxy at HKD29.20, i will only sell at HKD34 which is a valuation based on future projected earnings. Again as i have said before, projection is highly inaccurate and there is a possibility of getting wrong. Moreover current prices do not offered adequate margin of safety, thus i do not encourage anybody to follow me bcos once the earning trend reverse, its prices can plunge very quickly.
to clarify, i dont mean business in macau casino is turning bad soon, what i meant is current stock prices do not give adequate safety margin, thus one need to be careful and only invest small amount of capital. those who follow my posts regularly will find that i became cautious when stock prices keep moving higher and higher, on the other hand when stock prices keep crashing everyday i described it as gold bar dropping from heaven and we should catch it. the nutshell of the game is to determine the value of the company that we are buying and enter below valuation with adequate safety margin. if prices continue to fall after we bought, we should buy even more and not get frightened by volatility.
It is easy said that be done. The only way to overcome fear is to read extensively of its financial reports and research thoroughly. When we have a rounded view of the investment propspect and the entire industry, we will not be easily influence by negative sway talk and continue to standby our invested companies.
From the encouraging results of Macau casino, i hope the recovery wave can soon reach our local player, genting, which is currently trading at a much cheaper price than its macau peers. all the best to everyone, including myself who invested in Genting. Thank you 🙂
Subject: GuangShen Railway (GSR) Valuation
GSR announced its Q3 and 9 months financial results. Q3 operating earning continued to increase 2.10% on a year on year basis and contributed to a year to date of 10.2% increased in operating growth for the first 9 months of 2016. As such, my valuation for GSR is HKD3.54 and ideal entry price of HKD2.49. Thank you 🙂
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GUANGSHEN RAIL (00525.HK) +0.040 (+0.941%)
Short selling $43.08K Ratio 1.089%
announced the report for the first three quarters ended 30 September. In accordance with the PRC Enterprise Accounting Standards, net profit grew 23.4% yearly to RMB1.089 billion, with EPS of 15.4 fen.
(Quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2016-10-26 16:25.)
Subject: OCBC Valuation
Ocbc announced its Q3 and 9 months financial result. Q3 operating earning marked its first quarterly growth in 2016 and increased 9.5% on a year on year basis. As such, my valuation was revised up from SGD8.49 to SGD9.15 and ideal entry price at SGD7.13 or below. Thank you 🙂
Below are other analyst references as second opinion.
| SGX : OCBC Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP |
| Last Price | Avg Target Price | Upside/Downside | Price Call |
| 8.57 | 9.19 | |
| * Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months. |
| ** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable). |
Below is a second opinion for all readers.
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Morgan Stanley, in its report, said that GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) +1.050 (+3.339%)
Short selling $27.31M Ratio 10.546%
3Q adjusted EBITDA was $2.68 billion (+28% YoY or +18% QoQ), which was 7% higher than the estimates of $2.52 billion. Mass revenue was strong, with a quarterly growth of 10%, approximately 5% above market expectation.
The research house said that GALAXY ENT' s EBITDA margin improved by 200 bps quarterly which hit a historical high. The stock is trading at 11x EV/ EBITDA. The rating was Overweight and the target price was $33.4.
Posted: October 26, 2016 2:37 pmPosted by: @willisowSubject: Galaxy Entertainment Valuation
My favourite investment prospect, Galaxy Entertainment just announced its Q3 financial result and once again posted a stellar 28% increased in its Q3 operating performance. 6% growth in Q1 result, 22% growth in Q2 result and 28% growth in Q3 result, from past 3 quarters of data, we can see a continous improvement in the business of galaxy entertainment and thus it send a very strong indication that macau casino has turned around. Based on current earning, my valuation for galaxy entertainment revised up from HKD30 to HKD31.89.
As written in my post few weeks back when i again took a position with galaxy at HKD29.20, i will only sell at HKD34 which is a valuation based on future projected earnings. Again as i have said before, projection is highly inaccurate and there is a possibility of getting wrong. Moreover current prices do not offered adequate margin of safety, thus i do not encourage anybody to follow me bcos once the earning trend reverse, its prices can plunge very quickly.
to clarify, i dont mean business in macau casino is turning bad soon, what i meant is current stock prices do not give adequate safety margin, thus one need to be careful and only invest small amount of capital. those who follow my posts regularly will find that i became cautious when stock prices keep moving higher and higher, on the other hand when stock prices keep crashing everyday i described it as gold bar dropping from heaven and we should catch it. the nutshell of the game is to determine the value of the company that we are buying and enter below valuation with adequate safety margin. if prices continue to fall after we bought, we should buy even more and not get frightened by volatility.
It is easy said that be done. The only way to overcome fear is to read extensively of its financial reports and research thoroughly. When we have a rounded view of the investment propspect and the entire industry, we will not be easily influence by negative sway talk and continue to standby our invested companies.
From the encouraging results of Macau casino, i hope the recovery wave can soon reach our local player, genting, which is currently trading at a much cheaper price than its macau peers. all the best to everyone, including myself who invested in Genting. Thank you 🙂
Subject: Galaxy Entertainment Valuation
My favourite investment prospect, Galaxy Entertainment just announced its Q3 financial result and once again posted a stellar 28% increased in its Q3 operating performance. 6% growth in Q1 result, 22% growth in Q2 result and 28% growth in Q3 result, from past 3 quarters of data, we can see a continous improvement in the business of galaxy entertainment and thus it send a very strong indication that macau casino has turned around. Based on current earning, my valuation for galaxy entertainment revised up from HKD30 to HKD31.89.
As written in my post few weeks back when i again took a position with galaxy at HKD29.20, i will only sell at HKD34 which is a valuation based on future projected earnings. Again as i have said before, projection is highly inaccurate and there is a possibility of getting wrong. Moreover current prices do not offered adequate margin of safety, thus i do not encourage anybody to follow me bcos once the earning trend reverse, its prices can plunge very quickly.
to clarify, i dont mean business in macau casino is turning bad soon, what i meant is current stock prices do not give adequate safety margin, thus one need to be careful and only invest small amount of capital. those who follow my posts regularly will find that i became cautious when stock prices keep moving higher and higher, on the other hand when stock prices keep crashing everyday i described it as gold bar dropping from heaven and we should catch it. the nutshell of the game is to determine the value of the company that we are buying and enter below valuation with adequate safety margin. if prices continue to fall after we bought, we should buy even more and not get frightened by volatility.
It is easy said that be done. The only way to overcome fear is to read extensively of its financial reports and research thoroughly. When we have a rounded view of the investment propspect and the entire industry, we will not be easily influence by negative sway talk and continue to standby our invested companies.
From the encouraging results of Macau casino, i hope the recovery wave can soon reach our local player, genting, which is currently trading at a much cheaper price than its macau peers. all the best to everyone, including myself who invested in Genting. Thank you 🙂
Great sharing pal,
Thank you for your indept contributions for every readers' benefit. Keep going n don' t stop 🙂
Posted: October 26, 2016 10:43 amPosted by: @jeremyow
If you look at their q3 financial statements again for 2015 and 2016 as comparison. There are two major contributors to its impressive q3 financial results. There is a huge gain in the non-operating profits from insurance business. q3-15 had a loss of $78.7million while q3-16 had a profit of $17.5million. Bear in mind this item is non-operating profits! Non-operating profits can include such items as dividend income, profits and losses from investments, gains or losses incurred due to foreign exchange, asset write-downs and other non-operating revenues and expenses.Also, there is a huge gain in profit from shareholders' funds from q3-15 of $19.2million to q3-16 of $43.5million. The gain in profit from shareholders' funds was due to realised gain in sale of investments in q3-16 compared with realised loss in sale of investments in q3-15. Bear in mind that this improvement is not an operational gain from their insurance sales business but from their investments!
These two items in their q3 financial statements were the ones which saw the greatest significant jump in q3-16 over q3-15 which boosted the group profit attributable to shareholders to increase by 185%. And these two items are non-operational profit items! However, Great Eastern is still credited for a more modest and not significant improvement in their profits which came from operational activities in their insurance business in q3-16 over q3-16.
Posted: October 26, 2016 9:16 amPosted by: @willisow
News reported great eastern net profit up 185%. I can' t comment specific into great eastern bcos as admitted by myself earlier on I do not know how to value an insurance company. However logically it is not possible for a company of a mature industry to have its core earning up by nearly 2 folds within a year, it must had included one off or non operating items in it n inflated the number. Those who are well verse in investing in insurance companies are welcome to share more in details.I can share another example which I know how to value it. Byd, a prc automobile maker reported Q2 net profit Up 150% if I remember correctly where else its operating earning in reality only increased about 70% which was fantastic but definitely not as fantastic as reported by the media. A media job is to report info given by the main source n not create their own otherwise they could bear legal responsibilities but as an investor we definitely need to find out the truth ourselves otherwise we could b deceived by the surface data. Thank you 🙂
SINGAPORE - Great Eastern Holdings (GE), the insurance arm of OCBC Bank, announced on Wednesday (Oct 26) a 185 per cent jump in earnings for the third quarter on higher operating profit and favourable financial market conditions.
Net profit for the three months to Sept 30 swelled to S$195 million from S$68.4 million for the year-ago quarter.
For nine month period, earnings fell 30 per cent to $394.1 million from S$566.6 million a year ago, in the absence of a S$119.9 million gain last year from the disposal of GE' s investment in New China Life Insurance Company Ltd.
So we have to be careful not to just look at the final group profit attributable to shareholders which increased by an impressive 185% which could paint a picture too good to be true as certain profit items maybe non-recurring and fluctuating in nature (e.g. gain or loss from investments can vary from time to time depending on market conditions) since they are non-operational profits. The group only did a more modest rather than a hyped up siginificant jump in profits from their operations. It also tells us that non-profit items could sometimes boost the overall profits to abnormal extremes y-o-y especially if the amount of gain from the non-profit items is so huge enough in the case of q3-16 of Great Eastern' s financial results to cause such an abnormal jump in profits over the previous year.
Posted: October 26, 2016 10:43 amPosted by: @jeremyow
If you look at their q3 financial statements again for 2015 and 2016 as comparison. There are two major contributors to its impressive q3 financial results. There is a huge gain in the non-operating profits from insurance business. q3-15 had a loss of $78.7million while q3-16 had a profit of $17.5million. Bear in mind this item is non-operating profits! Non-operating profits can include such items as dividend income, profits and losses from investments, gains or losses incurred due to foreign exchange, asset write-downs and other non-operating revenues and expenses.Also, there is a huge gain in profit from shareholders' funds from q3-15 of $19.2million to q3-16 of $43.5million. The gain in profit from shareholders' funds was due to realised gain in sale of investments in q3-16 compared with realised loss in sale of investments in q3-15. Bear in mind that this improvement is not an operational gain from their insurance sales business but from their investments!
These two items in their q3 financial statements were the ones which saw the greatest significant jump in q3-16 over q3-15 which boosted the group profit attributable to shareholders to increase by 185%. And these two items are non-operational profit items! However, Great Eastern is still credited for a more modest and not significant improvement in their profits which came from operational activities in their insurance business in q3-16 over q3-16.
Posted: October 26, 2016 9:16 amPosted by: @willisow
News reported great eastern net profit up 185%. I can' t comment specific into great eastern bcos as admitted by myself earlier on I do not know how to value an insurance company. However logically it is not possible for a company of a mature industry to have its core earning up by nearly 2 folds within a year, it must had included one off or non operating items in it n inflated the number. Those who are well verse in investing in insurance companies are welcome to share more in details.I can share another example which I know how to value it. Byd, a prc automobile maker reported Q2 net profit Up 150% if I remember correctly where else its operating earning in reality only increased about 70% which was fantastic but definitely not as fantastic as reported by the media. A media job is to report info given by the main source n not create their own otherwise they could bear legal responsibilities but as an investor we definitely need to find out the truth ourselves otherwise we could b deceived by the surface data. Thank you 🙂
SINGAPORE - Great Eastern Holdings (GE), the insurance arm of OCBC Bank, announced on Wednesday (Oct 26) a 185 per cent jump in earnings for the third quarter on higher operating profit and favourable financial market conditions.
Net profit for the three months to Sept 30 swelled to S$195 million from S$68.4 million for the year-ago quarter.
For nine month period, earnings fell 30 per cent to $394.1 million from S$566.6 million a year ago, in the absence of a S$119.9 million gain last year from the disposal of GE' s investment in New China Life Insurance Company Ltd.
If you look at their q3 financial statements again for 2015 and 2016 as comparison. There are two major contributors to its impressive q3 financial results. There is a huge gain in the non-operating profits from insurance business. q3-15 had a loss of $78.7million while q3-16 had a profit of $17.5million. Bear in mind this item is non-operating profits! Non-operating profits can include such items as dividend income, profits and losses from investments, gains or losses incurred due to foreign exchange, asset write-downs and other non-operating revenues and expenses.
Also, there is a huge gain in profit from shareholders' funds from q3-15 of $19.2million to q3-16 of $43.5million. The gain in profit from shareholders' funds was due to realised gain in sale of investments in q3-16 compared with realised loss in sale of investments in q3-15. Bear in mind that this improvement is not an operational gain from their insurance sales business but from their investments!
These two items in their q3 financial statements were the ones which saw the greatest significant jump in q3-16 over q3-15 which boosted the group profit attributable to shareholders to increase by 185%. And these two items are non-operational profit items! However, Great Eastern is still credited for a more modest and not significant improvement in their profits which came from operational activities in their insurance business in q3-16 over q3-16.
Posted: October 26, 2016 9:16 amPosted by: @willisow
News reported great eastern net profit up 185%. I can' t comment specific into great eastern bcos as admitted by myself earlier on I do not know how to value an insurance company. However logically it is not possible for a company of a mature industry to have its core earning up by nearly 2 folds within a year, it must had included one off or non operating items in it n inflated the number. Those who are well verse in investing in insurance companies are welcome to share more in details.I can share another example which I know how to value it. Byd, a prc automobile maker reported Q2 net profit Up 150% if I remember correctly where else its operating earning in reality only increased about 70% which was fantastic but definitely not as fantastic as reported by the media. A media job is to report info given by the main source n not create their own otherwise they could bear legal responsibilities but as an investor we definitely need to find out the truth ourselves otherwise we could b deceived by the surface data. Thank you 🙂
SINGAPORE - Great Eastern Holdings (GE), the insurance arm of OCBC Bank, announced on Wednesday (Oct 26) a 185 per cent jump in earnings for the third quarter on higher operating profit and favourable financial market conditions.
Net profit for the three months to Sept 30 swelled to S$195 million from S$68.4 million for the year-ago quarter.
For nine month period, earnings fell 30 per cent to $394.1 million from S$566.6 million a year ago, in the absence of a S$119.9 million gain last year from the disposal of GE' s investment in New China Life Insurance Company Ltd.
Yesterday I invested heavily by buying a big roasted pig n employed a " tiao tung" master to pray to heaven mah 🙂
Posted: October 26, 2016 9:34 amPosted by: @bryancbq
wow! you got it?! Haha. Congrats!!
Posted: October 26, 2016 9:20 amPosted by: @willisow
Just catch one gold bar drop from heaven. M1 at $2.07 🙂Haha...
wow! you got it?! Haha. Congrats!!
Posted: October 26, 2016 9:20 amPosted by: @willisow
Just catch one gold bar drop from heaven. M1 at $2.07 🙂Haha...
Posted: October 25, 2016 9:26 amPosted by: @willisow
Queueing m1 at sgd2.07 for last buy. Just now short by one cent, sigh..continue praying 🙂
Current m1 prices represented a 20% fall in operating earnings where else till date it only retreated 5.5%. Thus there is a great mismatch between actual stock price n it' s value. As I always said I can' t predict share price movement, if m1 prices were to fall more, it is even more attractive to buy bcos the gap between it' s value n mkt price is even wider. Having said so I' m not encouraging anybody to buy m1 bcos I don' t hav to do so. Over time, mkt will realised their mistake of oversold n prices will move back to equivalent. Thank you 🙂
Posted: October 26, 2016 9:20 amPosted by: @willisow
Just catch one gold bar drop from heaven. M1 at $2.07 🙂Haha...
Posted: October 25, 2016 9:26 amPosted by: @willisow
Queueing m1 at sgd2.07 for last buy. Just now short by one cent, sigh..continue praying 🙂
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