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(@willisow)
Posts: 728
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M Stanley' s Latest Ratings & TPs for Macau Gaming Stocks (Table)
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2016/09/22 11:45
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SHOW: STOCK INFO SHORT SELL

Shares/ Ratings/ Target prices ($)
SANDS CHINA LTD(01928.HK) -0.900 (-2.695%) Short selling $117.34M Ratio 21.914% / Equalweight/ 25-> 33.8
WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) -0.340 (-2.591%) Short selling $122.91M Ratio 33.417% / Equalweight/ 11-> 14
SJM HOLDINGS (00880.HK) +0.070 (+1.243%) Short selling $10.18M Ratio 16.246% / Underweight/ 5-> 5.3
GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) -0.350 (-1.199%) Short selling $52.41M Ratio 10.281% / Overweight/ 29-> 33.4
MGM CHINA (02282.HK) -0.120 (-0.912%) Short selling $27.55M Ratio 38.065% / Underweight/ 9-> 11.5
(Quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2016-09-23 16:25.)

 
Posted : 26/09/2016 2:56 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

I always like to compared valuation with other analyst n from the numbers I will know whether did they factored in growth rate. My own valuation for Byd is hkd59.43 wink

Credit Suisse, in its report, lowered the target price of BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) -0.600 (-1.119%) Short selling $14.56M Ratio 11.040% to $80 with rating Outperform, mainly because the participation in monorail market is strategically right, but it will increase R& D and intangible asset amortisation costs in the near term. BYD earlier announced that it will invest RMB5 billion in monorail and establish related supply chain. The first monorail demo line is expected to start operation by the end of September.

The broker expected BYD' s new energy vehicle volume to rise further, driven by seasonal demand and some earlier demand due to 20% decline in the government cash subsidies from January 2017. BYD might lower its NEV price from 2017 to offset the drop in government subsidies.
(Quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2016-09-23 16:25.)

 
Posted : 26/09/2016 2:49 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

资 金 南 下 加 速 港 股 通 9月 份 以 来 净 流 入 近 500亿 元

09-26 01:32证 券 日 报

    资 金 南 下 加 速 , 港 股 通 9月 份 以 来 净 流 入 近 500亿 元

    分 析 人 士 表 示 , 港 股 估 值 优 势 、 资 金 提 前 布 局 &ldquo 深 港 通 &rdquo 、 规 避 贬 值 压 力 是 主 要 诱 因

    今 年 以 来 , 南 下 资 金 对 于 港 股 通 的 青 睐 有 目 共 睹 。 《 证 券 日 报 》 记 者 梳 理 发 现 , 自 年 初 至 今 , 港 股 通 共 发 生 三 起 &ldquo 南 下 潮 &rdquo 。 即 1月 4日 至 4月 12日 , 港 股 通 连 续 62个 交 易 日 呈 净 流 入 ; 4月 22日 至 7月 20日 , 港 股 通 连 续 60个 交 易 日 呈 净 流 入 ; 8月 3日 至 9月 21日 , 港 股 通 连 续 32个 交 易 日 呈 净 流 入 。

 
Posted : 26/09/2016 2:19 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Subject: Local banks Versus PRC Bank

Banks are always a favorite sector in my investment portfolio n I' m proud to say that my success rate are 100% till date (haolian a bit) 🙂 I have been stressing the need of reading last ten years of financial report before carrying out our investment in any company, reason being is to look for stable n consistent business performance. Although past performance can' t guarantee the future it does tell us how the management manage its business n the probability of repeating it' s past success into the future.
To elaborate what I mean by stable n consistent business performance, the narrower the trend of fluctuation in term of its business performance compared to its peers, the higher the quality of its company. It is becos when companies are able to defend their mkt share during both good n bad times show that it possesses competitive advantage to its peer. On the other hand, company with volatile performance show that they do not possess the ability to defend their mkt share. Their business can b rosy during good time or they can also b on the verge of bankruptcy during recession time as well.
I have the following simple stats to share on our local banks performance. 1) interest income as a % of total income: DBS (65%), ocbc (59%) n uob (61%). A rate hike will bring positive result to our local banks bottomline becos their earnings are skewed toward the interest component.
2) operating profit margin. DBS operating profit margin for 2013-2015 was 53%, 54% n 54%. Ocbc operating profit margin for same period was 63%, 59% n 60%. Uob operating profit margin was 58%, 57% n 54%. In actual analysis, we need to look at the data for last ten years on stable n consistent performance. Good companies will tend to have stable operating profit margin. The above stats indicated ocbc is more efficient in its operation compared to its peer. In addition, we also can see that banks enjoy High operating profit margin n this gave them the advantage of riding the inflation wave over the long term.
3) return on equity. DBS roe for 2013-2015 were 15%, 15% n 16%. Ocbc roe was 17%, 18% n 16%. Uob roe was 15%, 15% n 14%. Once again ocbc stand up marginally in term of fetching return to its shareholders. another angle to look at roe is, for example ocbc, 16% annual return to its shareholder mean approximately every 6 years it' s shareholder value will double (assuming they don' t pay dividend n loan provision r constant). The higher the roe the more attractive the company will be to investor. However do be careful n not to fall into roe trap of some companies. High roe can be fuel by high debt. Most prc companies present spectacular growth n roe becos these growth were powered by high debt. One good example is their property sector. Hence when these companies enter recession, their cashflow are hit significantly n can' t service their debt obligation, they can easily default n go into bankruptcy.
Lastly I would like to share with everyone on a prc bank, icbc, world largest bank. It' s operating earning in sgd is about 15 times of DBS. Icbc interest income account for about 76% of its total income (rate cut will have great negative impact on its operating profit). It has a much higher proportion in interest income compared to our local banks becos prc is still a developing economy, there are still lot of financing required in investment projects, Where else sg is already a mature economy. It' s operating profit margin is about 70% which is also higher than our local banks. However it is not an apple to apple comparison becos the interest environment in prc are much higher than sg n a higher proportion toward interest income fetched a higher total income to its operating expense. Thus we can only compare operating efficiency among peers in the same mkt. lastly icbc roe is about 29% n hence it is very attractive to invest in prc banks.
In evaluating a bank, there are many more data we need to analyse. Two important factors are its loan portfolio n loan provision. Thus, When we extract financial info from the financial report, we will gain insights to a company. Hence we will not be easily shaken when negative news or rumors arises. It is either that we do not invest in a company due to its business performance are not up to our expectation or once we concluded it is a good company n bought in, we will continue to standby our position for a long time. Thank you 🙂
 
Posted : 26/09/2016 2:11 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Mayb not so much as to what I think can do in prc, probably is more important to identify our own strength n weaknesses n how to align these factors to compete with other prc business 知 自 知 彼 , 百 战 百 胜 . Just like my friend, he has the talent in culinary n he can create food that r not only tasty but also with attractive appearance. He came to prc 15 years ago n the first few years he basically observed the general taste bug of the public (ppl from different places have different taste bug) n what r the type of food not offer in the mkt. after doing his research, he opened his first hotdog bun restaurant n not too long after, many prc came to him to ask for franchise of his business.

Those who r thinking of coming to prc to do business, my sharing is don' t jump straight in. Come here n stay for few years to observe first. Prc from different province behave differently. It is important to understand their culture, the way they work, their like n dislike before making conclusion. By the way the government body here is super inefficient n not business friendly. To register a company can take few months unlike in sg on the spot u can register a company cheeky

Posted: September 26, 2016 12:32 am
Posted by: @famouspinky

Big sacrifice to a country of pirahanas. ( many r leaving though) Little to lose. Much bigger to gain. The only way for a bigger mkt opportunity . Hokkien say.. thrash it out. Any business ideas or plans besides doing what u r doing? Like what u mentioned?
Posted: September 25, 2016 10:10 pm
Posted by: @willisow

Haha..not really an advice. It is just my own experience to share. It is good that one can cultivate an interest that can generate income, in this way u will feel happier becos u r not working for money, in fact money is working for u. U don' t even need to think of retirement becos u r doing something that u liked. It is better to b financially independent at a young age than to retire at a young age becos sitting at home n looking at 4 walls not knowing what to do is very boring. However, if u r financially independent u don' t have to work for money, u can do something that u like. I' m doing something which I like, I can continue my job as long as i want to so long I' m not blind, mentally n numerically healthy. Thus, I' m very happy everyday 🙂

 
Posted : 26/09/2016 2:08 am
(@famouspinky)
Posts: 2000
Noble Member
 

Alliance is strength.

Posted: September 25, 2016 10:09 pm
Posted by: @immortal

Good to know.......we all have our own destiny and path to choose smiley
Posted: September 25, 2016 9:53 pm
Posted by: @willisow

It is a question asked numerous time n I don' t mind to answer one more time 🙂 giving up my last job was a pretty difficult decision becos I was drawing a 5 figure salary. Giving up my job plus venturing into an unknow future was even more difficult to make a decision. It was not a guarantee that I will made it in investment, ton of ppl who r smarter than me failed. Moreover I had my responsibility for my parent as well. Hence I gave myself 10 years to try out. It was either I don' t do it or I put in my best effort to try n not just 1 or 2 years trial basis if cant make it then go back to the corporate world.

For the next 10 years I have to work out a sum that included my parent allowance plus my own living expenses. If I were to live in sg, my monthly property management fee was sgd200, water n electric bill $100, one day eat 3 meal say sgd20, made up sgd600..per month at least 1k. I rent out my property for sgd2.5k n came to prc, my prc rental all in was rmb1800, meal per month only rmb600-800, all in about 1/4 of my rental income from sg. Very simple math, don' t have to explain further. Haha.. 🙂


 
Posted : 25/09/2016 4:52 pm
(@famouspinky)
Posts: 2000
Noble Member
 

Big sacrifice to a country of pirahanas. ( many r leaving though) Little to lose. Much bigger to gain. The only way for a bigger mkt opportunity . Hokkien say.. thrash it out. Any business ideas or plans besides doing what u r doing? Like what u mentioned?

Posted: September 25, 2016 10:10 pm
Posted by: @willisow

Haha..not really an advice. It is just my own experience to share. It is good that one can cultivate an interest that can generate income, in this way u will feel happier becos u r not working for money, in fact money is working for u. U don' t even need to think of retirement becos u r doing something that u liked. It is better to b financially independent at a young age than to retire at a young age becos sitting at home n looking at 4 walls not knowing what to do is very boring. However, if u r financially independent u don' t have to work for money, u can do something that u like. I' m doing something which I like, I can continue my job as long as i want to so long I' m not blind, mentally n numerically healthy. Thus, I' m very happy everyday 🙂
Posted: September 25, 2016 8:17 pm
Posted by: @pinkowl

Great advice!!

 
Posted : 25/09/2016 4:32 pm
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Haha..not really an advice. It is just my own experience to share. It is good that one can cultivate an interest that can generate income, in this way u will feel happier becos u r not working for money, in fact money is working for u. U don' t even need to think of retirement becos u r doing something that u liked. It is better to b financially independent at a young age than to retire at a young age becos sitting at home n looking at 4 walls not knowing what to do is very boring. However, if u r financially independent u don' t have to work for money, u can do something that u like. I' m doing something which I like, I can continue my job as long as i want to so long I' m not blind, mentally n numerically healthy. Thus, I' m very happy everyday 🙂

Posted: September 25, 2016 8:17 pm
Posted by: @pinkowl

Great advice!!!
Posted: September 25, 2016 2:46 pm
Posted by: @willisow

I just saw news reported sg job seekers exceeded job vacancies. If I' m still with the bank, mostly likely I will be retrenched, too old...it is important that we develop a skill or knowledge that can generate income while we r still employed. Not necessary it must b investment, it can b anything that we have interest n slowly develop it into a commercial viable option. Do not afraid of failure, failure is normal. We will only learn from mistakes. Those who do not have courage to try anything but just Sit there n mock at others, they will tend to sit at the same spot for the rest of their life. Life is a process, it is not about success or failure, to persue while we r able n not being regretted when we become old..cheers 🙂

 
Posted : 25/09/2016 2:10 pm
(@immortal)
Posts: 292
Reputable Member
 

Good to know.......we all have our own destiny and path to choose smiley

Posted: September 25, 2016 9:53 pm
Posted by: @willisow

It is a question asked numerous time n I don' t mind to answer one more time 🙂 giving up my last job was a pretty difficult decision becos I was drawing a 5 figure salary. Giving up my job plus venturing into an unknow future was even more difficult to make a decision. It was not a guarantee that I will made it in investment, ton of ppl who r smarter than me failed. Moreover I had my responsibility for my parent as well. Hence I gave myself 10 years to try out. It was either I don' t do it or I put in my best effort to try n not just 1 or 2 years trial basis if cant make it then go back to the corporate world.

For the next 10 years I have to work out a sum that included my parent allowance plus my own living expenses. If I were to live in sg, my monthly property management fee was sgd200, water n electric bill $100, one day eat 3 meal say sgd20, made up sgd600..per month at least 1k. I rent out my property for sgd2.5k n came to prc, my prc rental all in was rmb1800, meal per month only rmb600-800, all in about 1/4 of my rental income from sg. Very simple math, don' t have to explain further. Haha.. 🙂

Posted: September 25, 2016 7:49 pm
Posted by: @immortal

You analyse stock value investing full time? Why do it in China?

Singapore can also be affordable, take pubic transportation and eat at hawker centre. I ride a foldable bike with my frenchie dog and take Bus and MRT and living quite comfortably.


 
Posted : 25/09/2016 2:09 pm
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Grandmaster Famouspinky,

If u like Tsingtao beer u can come prc n drink whole bucket. Per can not sgd2, is sgd0.50, cheaper than mineral water. Tiger beer I think is sgd1 if I' m not wrong...haha...

Posted: September 25, 2016 8:11 pm
Posted by: @famouspinky

Living expenses in China much cheaper. Tsingtao beer only $2 per packet
Posted: September 25, 2016 7:49 pm
Posted by: @immortal

You analyse stock value investing full time? Why do it in China?

Singapore can also be affordable, take pubic transportation and eat at hawker centre. I ride a foldable bike with my frenchie dog and take Bus and MRT and living quite comfortably.


 
Posted : 25/09/2016 1:56 pm
(@immortal)
Posts: 292
Reputable Member
 

Yes, good advice to learn income generating skill while in full employment.

Looking forward to my retirement in 15 years time, with CPF Life Annuity 2k per month , aviva retirement payout 1k per month from 65 to 75 with 100k at 75, hopefully 5% trading profit from my cash retirement funds, medishield coverage. No car by then, just foldable brompton bike and public transportation

Looking forward to the next chapter in my liffe then

 
Posted : 25/09/2016 1:53 pm
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

It is a question asked numerous time n I don' t mind to answer one more time 🙂 giving up my last job was a pretty difficult decision becos I was drawing a 5 figure salary. Giving up my job plus venturing into an unknow future was even more difficult to make a decision. It was not a guarantee that I will made it in investment, ton of ppl who r smarter than me failed. Moreover I had my responsibility for my parent as well. Hence I gave myself 10 years to try out. It was either I don' t do it or I put in my best effort to try n not just 1 or 2 years trial basis if cant make it then go back to the corporate world.

For the next 10 years I have to work out a sum that included my parent allowance plus my own living expenses. If I were to live in sg, my monthly property management fee was sgd200, water n electric bill $100, one day eat 3 meal say sgd20, made up sgd600..per month at least 1k. I rent out my property for sgd2.5k n came to prc, my prc rental all in was rmb1800, meal per month only rmb600-800, all in about 1/4 of my rental income from sg. Very simple math, don' t have to explain further. Haha.. 🙂

Posted: September 25, 2016 7:49 pm
Posted by: @immortal

You analyse stock value investing full time? Why do it in China?

Singapore can also be affordable, take pubic transportation and eat at hawker centre. I ride a foldable bike with my frenchie dog and take Bus and MRT and living quite comfortably.

 
Posted : 25/09/2016 1:53 pm
(@pinkowl)
Posts: 5166
Illustrious Member
 

Great advice!!!

Posted: September 25, 2016 2:46 pm
Posted by: @willisow

I just saw news reported sg job seekers exceeded job vacancies. If I' m still with the bank, mostly likely I will be retrenched, too old...it is important that we develop a skill or knowledge that can generate income while we r still employed. Not necessary it must b investment, it can b anything that we have interest n slowly develop it into a commercial viable option. Do not afraid of failure, failure is normal. We will only learn from mistakes. Those who do not have courage to try anything but just Sit there n mock at others, they will tend to sit at the same spot for the rest of their life. Life is a process, it is not about success or failure, to persue while we r able n not being regretted when we become old..cheers 🙂

 
Posted : 25/09/2016 12:17 pm
(@famouspinky)
Posts: 2000
Noble Member
 

Living expenses in China much cheaper. Tsingtao beer only $2 per packet

Posted: September 25, 2016 7:49 pm
Posted by: @immortal

You analyse stock value investing full time? Why do it in China?

Singapore can also be affordable, take pubic transportation and eat at hawker centre. I ride a foldable bike with my frenchie dog and take Bus and MRT and living quite comfortably.

 
Posted : 25/09/2016 12:11 pm
(@immortal)
Posts: 292
Reputable Member
 

You analyse stock value investing full time? Why do it in China?

Singapore can also be affordable, take pubic transportation and eat at hawker centre. I ride a foldable bike with my frenchie dog and take Bus and MRT and living quite comfortably.

 
Posted : 25/09/2016 11:49 am
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