Not many good companies ard the world. Galaxy is certainly not one.
To Pinkowl,forgotten to say..welcome on board, we are on the same boat (m1) again 🙂
By the way anyone knows where is my grand master famouspinky? Usually once i write a post, immediately he will jump out and criticise me, i have written a few but no sight of him..very curious :p
everyone has their own comfort proportion between cash and investments. my own way is 30% and 70% in stocks. for stocks component currently i have 14 invested stocks and usually i will switch around once an individual stock hit valuation. as for cash, it is more for standby just in case companies issue rights, or out of sudden there are more investable options. myself i do not time the market and i also cant do it. all buying and selling are based on valuation. hence i have no concern about the macro economy and so forth 🙂I just saw that galaxy entertainment once again back to it valuation of hkd30 2 days ago. again, those who bought, congrat 🙂
those who have been monitoring galaxy entertainment may wonder how come it always hit valuation so easily? it is a question which i cant answer becos when a stock is bullish there can be thousand of positive comments. likewise when it is bearish, there can be thousand of creative comments as well 🙂 what we can do is to focus on its fundamental and read the financial reports as much as possible. Thank you :
Do you hold any bonds, Wilisow?
everyone has their own comfort proportion between cash and investments. my own way is 30% and 70% in stocks. for stocks component currently i have 14 invested stocks and usually i will switch around once an individual stock hit valuation. as for cash, it is more for standby just in case companies issue rights, or out of sudden there are more investable options. myself i do not time the market and i also cant do it. all buying and selling are based on valuation. hence i have no concern about the macro economy and so forth 🙂I just saw that galaxy entertainment once again back to it valuation of hkd30 2 days ago. again, those who bought, congrat 🙂
those who have been monitoring galaxy entertainment may wonder how come it always hit valuation so easily? it is a question which i cant answer becos when a stock is bullish there can be thousand of positive comments. likewise when it is bearish, there can be thousand of creative comments as well 🙂 what we can do is to focus on its fundamental and read the financial reports as much as possible. Thank you 🙂
Thanks for the extensive sharing which is easy to understand. It so happened that I'd bought it at exactly the same price as you...2.43. I didn't know your entry price prior to reading this post. 🙂I agree with many of the points you mentioned. Last week, I passed by an m1 shop and oh wow.... the place was crowded with customers. I also know it has good customer service and offers slightly more attractive pricing as compared to her competitors. Based on TA, it's oversold on many time frames - short to long. There's when I decided to jump in....and have ready loads to buy in if it dips further.
However, rate may hike in Dec, and the last time it did, shares price plunged across the board. So I was wondering if I should try to hold cash first...till the market corrects.
Thanks for the clear explanation and i sights and for pointing out that m1's debt is sustainable given it's non-cyclical nature.
Just like to share my thoughts on the "disadvantage" of m1 nor offering TV programmes. It may be a valid handicap because the other 2 competitors bundle up and offer discounts if you get all in one package. E.g. up to 30% discount the more phone lines you get in a bundle. So they may include their family members under same provider.
I think m1 may be on a losing end if all other competitors offer bundle....unless it's able to differentiate itself in other ways. Price and service maybe?
All in all, I have confidence in your research and will look at accumulating m1 with a longer-term view. Thanks for sharing despite the inconvenience you are dealing with. Very much appreciated. ?
Brokerage and opportunity costs forgone in SgX
Lky birthday...no celebration also...market no crash no up too !! ...
I'm actually thinking Abt 20 y but if black Swan attack earlier, Ive to use my patented product to block it. I still have lots of dreams to be fulfilled.
To Pinkowl,
forgotten to say..welcome on board, we are on the same boat (m1) again 🙂
By the way anyone knows where is my grand master famouspinky? Usually once i write a post, immediately he will jump out and criticise me, i have written a few but no sight of him..very curious :p
everyone has their own comfort proportion between cash and investments. my own way is 30% and 70% in stocks. for stocks component currently i have 14 invested stocks and usually i will switch around once an individual stock hit valuation. as for cash, it is more for standby just in case companies issue rights, or out of sudden there are more investable options. myself i do not time the market and i also cant do it. all buying and selling are based on valuation. hence i have no concern about the macro economy and so forth 🙂I just saw that galaxy entertainment once again back to it valuation of hkd30 2 days ago. again, those who bought, congrat 🙂
those who have been monitoring galaxy entertainment may wonder how come it always hit valuation so easily? it is a question which i cant answer becos when a stock is bullish there can be thousand of positive comments. likewise when it is bearish, there can be thousand of creative comments as well 🙂 what we can do is to focus on its fundamental and read the financial reports as much as possible. Thank you 🙂
Thanks for the extensive sharing which is easy to understand. It so happened that I'd bought it at exactly the same price as you...2.43. I didn't know your entry price prior to reading this post. 🙂I agree with many of the points you mentioned. Last week, I passed by an m1 shop and oh wow.... the place was crowded with customers. I also know it has good customer service and offers slightly more attractive pricing as compared to her competitors. Based on TA, it's oversold on many time frames - short to long. There's when I decided to jump in....and have ready loads to buy in if it dips further.
However, rate may hike in Dec, and the last time it did, shares price plunged across the board. So I was wondering if I should try to hold cash first...till the market corrects.
Thanks for the clear explanation and i sights and for pointing out that m1's debt is sustainable given it's non-cyclical nature.
Just like to share my thoughts on the "disadvantage" of m1 nor offering TV programmes. It may be a valid handicap because the other 2 competitors bundle up and offer discounts if you get all in one package. E.g. up to 30% discount the more phone lines you get in a bundle. So they may include their family members under same provider.
I think m1 may be on a losing end if all other competitors offer bundle....unless it's able to differentiate itself in other ways. Price and service maybe?
All in all, I have confidence in your research and will look at accumulating m1 with a longer-term view. Thanks for sharing despite the inconvenience you are dealing with. Very much appreciated. ?
everyone has their own comfort proportion between cash and investments. my own way is 30% and 70% in stocks. for stocks component currently i have 14 invested stocks and usually i will switch around once an individual stock hit valuation. as for cash, it is more for standby just in case companies issue rights, or out of sudden there are more investable options. myself i do not time the market and i also cant do it. all buying and selling are based on valuation. hence i have no concern about the macro economy and so forth 🙂
I just saw that galaxy entertainment once again back to it valuation of hkd30 2 days ago. again, those who bought, congrat 🙂
those who have been monitoring galaxy entertainment may wonder how come it always hit valuation so easily? it is a question which i cant answer becos when a stock is bullish there can be thousand of positive comments. likewise when it is bearish, there can be thousand of creative comments as well 🙂 what we can do is to focus on its fundamental and read the financial reports as much as possible. Thank you 🙂
Thanks for the extensive sharing which is easy to understand. It so happened that I'd bought it at exactly the same price as you...2.43. I didn't know your entry price prior to reading this post. 🙂I agree with many of the points you mentioned. Last week, I passed by an m1 shop and oh wow.... the place was crowded with customers. I also know it has good customer service and offers slightly more attractive pricing as compared to her competitors. Based on TA, it's oversold on many time frames - short to long. There's when I decided to jump in....and have ready loads to buy in if it dips further.
However, rate may hike in Dec, and the last time it did, shares price plunged across the board. So I was wondering if I should try to hold cash first...till the market corrects.
Thanks for the clear explanation and i sights and for pointing out that m1's debt is sustainable given it's non-cyclical nature.
Just like to share my thoughts on the "disadvantage" of m1 nor offering TV programmes. It may be a valid handicap because the other 2 competitors bundle up and offer discounts if you get all in one package. E.g. up to 30% discount the more phone lines you get in a bundle. So they may include their family members under same provider.
I think m1 may be on a losing end if all other competitors offer bundle....unless it's able to differentiate itself in other ways. Price and service maybe?
All in all, I have confidence in your research and will look at accumulating m1 with a longer-term view. Thanks for sharing despite the inconvenience you are dealing with. Very much appreciated. ?
Hi Pinkowl,Sorry for late reply becos my network is very unstable, it cut off after a while, not yet fully restored from the typhoon damaged. U r right..I can' t buy galaxy entertainment at hkd27 n below, thus bought m1 at sgd2.43. This is the second time I bought m1 this year, first purchased was in Q1 at same purchase price. Lowest it went down to sgd2.20 and within 1 or 2 months it hit valuation of sgd2.70.
Since the day I shared on m1, I visited quite frequently to the m1 thread n almost everyone was giving negative comments. Some said the msia investor back out of their intention of private placement with m1 n this news is going to be bad for m1..some said m1 major shareholder Keppel corp may consider to sell their share, etc n etc. anyway it is very common for me to see negative comments whenever I started buying bcos I always buy when everyone is fearful.
To me it is a good news that m1 did not proceed with the private placement with the Msia investor bcos it show that the company is confident of its current position n need not get additional funding to strengthen their balance sheet to compete with the new player. In fact it will b bad news for m1 existing investor if they were to go ahead with the private placement becos firstly the Msia investor already said they would like to buy n it is just a matter of pricing. If m1 were to give a low price to them, it show that they r desperate for money n sell the company cheap. Secondly, a private placement will dilute its share base n valuation will fall, thus it doesn' t give any benefits to m1 or m1 shareholders unless the Msia investor r buying above valuation.
It also doesn' t make sense to me that Keppel corp is going to sell their share just becos a new player is coming. When starhub entered the mkt, Keppel corp also didn' t sell n m1 share still hit historical high even after starhub came in. Even if keppel corp were to divest its m1 interest, it doesnt mean that m1 is dieing soon. there r many reasons when someone sell their share but there is only one reason when someone buy n that is confident. sometime ppl who give negative comments r very creative n seem like everywhere is the same, prc also like to bad mouth their companies by saying things that out of no where from the sky 🙂
Some commented that becos m1 doesn' t offer tv programme unlike starhub n Singtel, hence m1 will b most affected if the new player were to offer such service. Again, this is jumping to conclusion. If this conclusion is valid, m1 would have closed shop long time ago when starhub entered the mkt. the strategy of bundling the mobile n Internet services with tv programme can only penetrate to a niche segment, household segment, it cant captured the entire mkt. Example, if a household consisted of 3 members, father, mother n son. The father only need to opt for the bundle package with starhub or Singtel to get the tv programme for his family. Where else both the mother n son can still choose other operators such as m1. Thus, if the new player were to offer tv programme, the competition will be more on starhub n Singtel becos customer who opt for m1 knew that it does not offer such service n consumer also does not have such needs, thats the reason they opt for m1 in the first place.
U r right that m1 debt ratio is high at 85% but m1 is not the highest. The highest is starhub at 360%, it' s debts r 3.6 times it' s shareholder equity. I saw someone said m1 may bankrupt when the new player come in, I think is very hilarious n very imaginative. Another guy said when the new player come in, all 3 existing operators will give up 1/4 of their mkt share to the new player, seem like he is the one distributing the cake n so evenly.
We can' t compare m1 or starhub with Singtel becos Singtel is much much bigger than them, thus it' s operating cashflow alone can finance substantially it' s investment like upgrade of Internet to 4g n etc. where else star hub n m1 will need assistance from bank loans n this is very normal. If they don' t borrow to upgrade their services they will not b able to compete with Singtel. Although both m1 n starhub engaged in high debt, they r different from cyclical industry like property, airline, casino n etc. telco demands r very stable, irregardless of recession or growth, there is not much different to their bottomline. most consumers r not going to terminate their mobile n Internet services just becos of recession, unless they lose their job or in financial difficulties.
Example the yearly fluctuation of m1 operating profit for past 10 years was less than 5%. M1 yearly interest cost is sgd5mil n it' s operating cashflow is sgd340mil, there is zero probability that they will default on their debts. Unlike cyclical industry like property, we will always need to buy a company with low debt becos the demand for properties can dry up instantly once recession set in n company cashflow will plunge drastically when that happen. Hence, developers with high debt may not b able to service their interest n default.
Although m1 debt ratio of 85% may seem to be high on the surface, in reality they have no problem repaying their obligation. Their current outstanding debt r sgd354mil n their past 10 years operating cashflow ranged between sgd321mil to current of sgd340mil. If they stop paying dividend for one year, they can easily pay down 90% of their debts. Likewise for starhub existing debt is sgd680mil n its operating cashflow is sgd730mil. They can easily pay off their debts within one year. Thus their stable operating cashflow not only guarantee their ability to service their debt but also enable them to reduce their debt as time goes by.
It is my mistake of not explaining clearly that low debt preference r more for cyclical industries. Of cos, low debt preference can also applied to telco if we want to have double assurance but currently Singtel is trading above its valuation of sgd3.50 n ideal entry price is sgd3.28. It is not justifiable to buy Singtel at current price which is expensive n forgo m1 which is trading at a cheap price. Currently, starhub should b also trading below its valuation of sgd3.48, it' s ideal entry price is sgd3.20. Thus, Singtel is the only one still trading above valuation becos mkt perceived that Singtel will b least affected by the new player. However it may not b the case becos we don' t even know who is the 4th player n what r their marketing strategies.
When a new player enter a mkt selling homogenous product n services with the existing players, it either gain mkt share based on price competition r based on strategic marketing. Firstly, the 4th player is not announced yet n secondly we also don' t know what will be its marketing strategy. Hence it is too early to get ourselves frightened when the war has not started yet. My own opinion is, it is unlikely to engage in price war becos a new player will always have a higher operating cost than the existing players, trying to fight a war by burning money is not a wise decision, both m1 n Singtel had experienced price war n both had learnt their lesson. Moreover, there r 3 existing players now n it will be 1 against 3 if the new player were to start a price war, which is very unwise. Again, if price war is effective, being the largest player, Singtel would have wipe out both starhub n m1 long time ago.
Hence, we should stay calm n monitor the progress of the 4th player. It is not a guarantee that a new player will always be able to gain mkt share against the existing players. There were many examples of failure n the most recent one was ü ber which gave up its prc business to their local competitor after engaging in price war for the past one year. New player carry many disadvantages than advantages to existing players. They r unknown with no branding, they have no customer base, their distribution network r less extensive than existing players n they will also have a higher operating cost than existing player. Hence, it is not easy for a new player to survive unless their marketing strategy successfully penetrate into a niche segment just like what starhub did, bundled its mobile business with their tv programme.
My own stance is very clear, I will continue to standby m1 going forward n I' m ready to have my second purchase at sgd2.17 becos i view downward pricing as an opportunity than threat. In Q1 I missed my second purchase by a few cents n let see what will happen to Q3 n Q4. If u have bought at sgd2.43 (2014 dividend 0.14 n 2015 dividend 0.19)or below for m1, it is a good buy. If prices were to fall further, it is likely due to fear than it' s fundamental. Thus, it is not easy to have our view to b at odd with the public becos we will tend to question our own stance. We will only be able to stand up to our fear when we have done our homework thoroughly. Hope my sharing can give u some comfort n confident 🙂 thank you.
There is a Chinese saying 君 子 坦 荡 荡 (being sincere n truthful r virtue of a gentlemen). As I have mentioned before I' m here to share n at the same time hope to promote donation n help to the stray dogs n cats. If every 100 who read my post n 1 decided to donate to the strays, it is better than nothing. All I did was just write some stories n if it could benefit the strays, y not 🙂
Oh wow. Thanks for the sincerity. I hope your kindness won't end up being exploited.No obligations for you to answer us on time. We didn't pay you leh. Take your time to reply only when you are free. We should be responsible for our own buy/sell actions. Thanks for being kind as always.
Hi pinkowl,Sorry for late reply. Yesterday night when I saw your message I couldn' t reply u becos my Internet was cut off again. I have type out my reply yesterday n just sent out to u. Currently I' m using Internet from the road store to reply u becos my home Internet is still down. I worried that if I don' t reply u, u might get nervous especially m1 price is currently down. If u have anymore queries in the coming few days, u may want to message me at my china mobile +8615980849765, I will get public network to reply u. Likewise to those who took my recommendation to buy m1 also feel free to do so. Thank you 🙂
Oh wow. Thanks for the sincerity. I hope your kindness won't end up being exploited.
No obligations for you to answer us on time. We didn't pay you leh. Take your time to reply only when you are free. We should be responsible for our own buy/sell actions. Thanks for being kind as always.
Hi pinkowl,Sorry for late reply. Yesterday night when I saw your message I couldn' t reply u becos my Internet was cut off again. I have type out my reply yesterday n just sent out to u. Currently I' m using Internet from the road store to reply u becos my home Internet is still down. I worried that if I don' t reply u, u might get nervous especially m1 price is currently down. If u have anymore queries in the coming few days, u may want to message me at my china mobile +8615980849765, I will get public network to reply u. Likewise to those who took my recommendation to buy m1 also feel free to do so. Thank you 🙂
Thanks for the extensive sharing which is easy to understand. It so happened that I'd bought it at exactly the same price as you...2.43. I didn't know your entry price prior to reading this post. 🙂
I agree with many of the points you mentioned. Last week, I passed by an m1 shop and oh wow.... the place was crowded with customers. I also know it has good customer service and offers slightly more attractive pricing as compared to her competitors. Based on TA, it's oversold on many time frames - short to long. There's when I decided to jump in....and have ready loads to buy in if it dips further.
However, rate may hike in Dec, and the last time it did, shares price plunged across the board. So I was wondering if I should try to hold cash first...till the market corrects.
Thanks for the clear explanation and i sights and for pointing out that m1's debt is sustainable given it's non-cyclical nature.
Just like to share my thoughts on the "disadvantage" of m1 nor offering TV programmes. It may be a valid handicap because the other 2 competitors bundle up and offer discounts if you get all in one package. E.g. up to 30% discount the more phone lines you get in a bundle. So they may include their family members under same provider.
I think m1 may be on a losing end if all other competitors offer bundle....unless it's able to differentiate itself in other ways. Price and service maybe?
All in all, I have confidence in your research and will look at accumulating m1 with a longer-term view. Thanks for sharing despite the inconvenience you are dealing with. Very much appreciated. ?
Hi Pinkowl,Sorry for late reply becos my network is very unstable, it cut off after a while, not yet fully restored from the typhoon damaged. U r right..I can' t buy galaxy entertainment at hkd27 n below, thus bought m1 at sgd2.43. This is the second time I bought m1 this year, first purchased was in Q1 at same purchase price. Lowest it went down to sgd2.20 and within 1 or 2 months it hit valuation of sgd2.70.
Since the day I shared on m1, I visited quite frequently to the m1 thread n almost everyone was giving negative comments. Some said the msia investor back out of their intention of private placement with m1 n this news is going to be bad for m1..some said m1 major shareholder Keppel corp may consider to sell their share, etc n etc. anyway it is very common for me to see negative comments whenever I started buying bcos I always buy when everyone is fearful.
To me it is a good news that m1 did not proceed with the private placement with the Msia investor bcos it show that the company is confident of its current position n need not get additional funding to strengthen their balance sheet to compete with the new player. In fact it will b bad news for m1 existing investor if they were to go ahead with the private placement becos firstly the Msia investor already said they would like to buy n it is just a matter of pricing. If m1 were to give a low price to them, it show that they r desperate for money n sell the company cheap. Secondly, a private placement will dilute its share base n valuation will fall, thus it doesn' t give any benefits to m1 or m1 shareholders unless the Msia investor r buying above valuation.
It also doesn' t make sense to me that Keppel corp is going to sell their share just becos a new player is coming. When starhub entered the mkt, Keppel corp also didn' t sell n m1 share still hit historical high even after starhub came in. Even if keppel corp were to divest its m1 interest, it doesnt mean that m1 is dieing soon. there r many reasons when someone sell their share but there is only one reason when someone buy n that is confident. sometime ppl who give negative comments r very creative n seem like everywhere is the same, prc also like to bad mouth their companies by saying things that out of no where from the sky 🙂
Some commented that becos m1 doesn' t offer tv programme unlike starhub n Singtel, hence m1 will b most affected if the new player were to offer such service. Again, this is jumping to conclusion. If this conclusion is valid, m1 would have closed shop long time ago when starhub entered the mkt. the strategy of bundling the mobile n Internet services with tv programme can only penetrate to a niche segment, household segment, it cant captured the entire mkt. Example, if a household consisted of 3 members, father, mother n son. The father only need to opt for the bundle package with starhub or Singtel to get the tv programme for his family. Where else both the mother n son can still choose other operators such as m1. Thus, if the new player were to offer tv programme, the competition will be more on starhub n Singtel becos customer who opt for m1 knew that it does not offer such service n consumer also does not have such needs, thats the reason they opt for m1 in the first place.
U r right that m1 debt ratio is high at 85% but m1 is not the highest. The highest is starhub at 360%, it' s debts r 3.6 times it' s shareholder equity. I saw someone said m1 may bankrupt when the new player come in, I think is very hilarious n very imaginative. Another guy said when the new player come in, all 3 existing operators will give up 1/4 of their mkt share to the new player, seem like he is the one distributing the cake n so evenly.
We can' t compare m1 or starhub with Singtel becos Singtel is much much bigger than them, thus it' s operating cashflow alone can finance substantially it' s investment like upgrade of Internet to 4g n etc. where else star hub n m1 will need assistance from bank loans n this is very normal. If they don' t borrow to upgrade their services they will not b able to compete with Singtel. Although both m1 n starhub engaged in high debt, they r different from cyclical industry like property, airline, casino n etc. telco demands r very stable, irregardless of recession or growth, there is not much different to their bottomline. most consumers r not going to terminate their mobile n Internet services just becos of recession, unless they lose their job or in financial difficulties.
Example the yearly fluctuation of m1 operating profit for past 10 years was less than 5%. M1 yearly interest cost is sgd5mil n it' s operating cashflow is sgd340mil, there is zero probability that they will default on their debts. Unlike cyclical industry like property, we will always need to buy a company with low debt becos the demand for properties can dry up instantly once recession set in n company cashflow will plunge drastically when that happen. Hence, developers with high debt may not b able to service their interest n default.
Although m1 debt ratio of 85% may seem to be high on the surface, in reality they have no problem repaying their obligation. Their current outstanding debt r sgd354mil n their past 10 years operating cashflow ranged between sgd321mil to current of sgd340mil. If they stop paying dividend for one year, they can easily pay down 90% of their debts. Likewise for starhub existing debt is sgd680mil n its operating cashflow is sgd730mil. They can easily pay off their debts within one year. Thus their stable operating cashflow not only guarantee their ability to service their debt but also enable them to reduce their debt as time goes by.
It is my mistake of not explaining clearly that low debt preference r more for cyclical industries. Of cos, low debt preference can also applied to telco if we want to have double assurance but currently Singtel is trading above its valuation of sgd3.50 n ideal entry price is sgd3.28. It is not justifiable to buy Singtel at current price which is expensive n forgo m1 which is trading at a cheap price. Currently, starhub should b also trading below its valuation of sgd3.48, it' s ideal entry price is sgd3.20. Thus, Singtel is the only one still trading above valuation becos mkt perceived that Singtel will b least affected by the new player. However it may not b the case becos we don' t even know who is the 4th player n what r their marketing strategies.
When a new player enter a mkt selling homogenous product n services with the existing players, it either gain mkt share based on price competition r based on strategic marketing. Firstly, the 4th player is not announced yet n secondly we also don' t know what will be its marketing strategy. Hence it is too early to get ourselves frightened when the war has not started yet. My own opinion is, it is unlikely to engage in price war becos a new player will always have a higher operating cost than the existing players, trying to fight a war by burning money is not a wise decision, both m1 n Singtel had experienced price war n both had learnt their lesson. Moreover, there r 3 existing players now n it will be 1 against 3 if the new player were to start a price war, which is very unwise. Again, if price war is effective, being the largest player, Singtel would have wipe out both starhub n m1 long time ago.
Hence, we should stay calm n monitor the progress of the 4th player. It is not a guarantee that a new player will always be able to gain mkt share against the existing players. There were many examples of failure n the most recent one was ü ber which gave up its prc business to their local competitor after engaging in price war for the past one year. New player carry many disadvantages than advantages to existing players. They r unknown with no branding, they have no customer base, their distribution network r less extensive than existing players n they will also have a higher operating cost than existing player. Hence, it is not easy for a new player to survive unless their marketing strategy successfully penetrate into a niche segment just like what starhub did, bundled its mobile business with their tv programme.
My own stance is very clear, I will continue to standby m1 going forward n I' m ready to have my second purchase at sgd2.17 becos i view downward pricing as an opportunity than threat. In Q1 I missed my second purchase by a few cents n let see what will happen to Q3 n Q4. If u have bought at sgd2.43 (2014 dividend 0.14 n 2015 dividend 0.19)or below for m1, it is a good buy. If prices were to fall further, it is likely due to fear than it' s fundamental. Thus, it is not easy to have our view to b at odd with the public becos we will tend to question our own stance. We will only be able to stand up to our fear when we have done our homework thoroughly. Hope my sharing can give u some comfort n confident 🙂 thank you.
Hi pinkowl,
Sorry for late reply. Yesterday night when I saw your message I couldn' t reply u becos my Internet was cut off again. I have type out my reply yesterday n just sent out to u. Currently I' m using Internet from the road store to reply u becos my home Internet is still down. I worried that if I don' t reply u, u might get nervous especially m1 price is currently down. If u have anymore queries in the coming few days, u may want to message me at my china mobile +8615980849765, I will get public network to reply u. Likewise to those who took my recommendation to buy m1 also feel free to do so. Thank you 🙂
Thanks, wilisow. How would you think of m1 - think debt is the highest among the 3 telcos? Understand you have mentioned about its valuation at 2.70 and i believe you are holding. I've recently bought in too.
Do you have any further comments to this counter? Can hold or an industry threatened by new entry of competitor? Thanks.
Subject: Will U Marry Me?All this while I have been writing theory n technical posts with regards to investment. Today I would like to share something interesting about the social phenomenon of the prc.
When I came to prc 7-8 years ago, a small city in Guangdong that look liked the 80s-90s sg..as I' m totally new to this city, no friends, don' t know anyone n my dog was still in sg, everyday I spent majority of the time doing my investment research at home. Whenever I have my breaks I would watched the prc tv programme. A very famous match making programme called 非 诚 勿 扰 was my favorite during that period (I' m a very geibo person)
In one episode, talking about many prc gals were going after rich man n to the extend that they r willing to become mistresses (小 三 ) as long as they r provided with money, branded stuff, comfortable life n etc. one of the female participant said the purpose of her joining the programme was to look for rich man, very honest n brave reply in front of 1.3 billion viewers. The host asked her whether was she worried of what others going to say about her n I still remembered her answer. She said she rather sit inside a BMW n cry than cry inside a public bus. Personally I think she was very smart to make use of the programme to advertise herself freely.
Female population in prc r lesser than male. As a result of law of scarcity (everything I can link to economic), a female will only marry a male provided that the male can afford to buy a property under her name (in general). Being a traditional society to find a wife to give birth to the next generation, sibling, parents, grand parents all break their piggy banks n coffin money to help the little groom to buy a property.
Property demand r further fuel by speculative demand from the rich n pushes the property price to rocket high. Property developers also joined in by deliberately making no progress to their construction of property after they had acquired the land so as to reduce the supply of properties n push up prices even higher. The provincial government literally closed both their eyes n let prices shoot up becos prc r unlike sg that derive its fiscal revenue mainly through tax, their main fiscal revenue come from sale of lands. The higher the property price rises, the more ppl will buy becos they worried that if they don' t buy it will go even higher. As a result both the developers n government were the ultimate winners.
For the past 8 years prc developers can closed both eyes n still get to sell off all their properties, everyday they were steady boon b b n it seem that the good days will last into infinity. Thus, they became very confident n aggressive in getting bank loans to bid for new lands n constructed more supply of properties. As a result we can see that all prc developers carried a debt ratio of more than 1 fold of its equity. They were not bothered with keeping cash on hand becos to them mkt was so good, keeping cash was not an efficient way to drive return. Thus they r high in gearing n low in cash on hand.
About 3 years ago, their central government announced policy to curb property demand n the impact of this policy soon became an atomic bomb to the prc property sector. Out of sudden, the robust demand for properties disappeared, developers were stuck with high unsold property inventories n some can' t even complete their project due to cut off of loan supply by the banks. As a result these developers plunged into cashflow problems n a few of them defaulted their debts. From then on everyone of them cry like baby.
As I have mentioned before, my preference is to invest in companies of zero to low debt, companies flooded with cash on hand n this two criterias r always a must. Buy n hold a company without this two criterias r as good as holding a time bomb, we wouldn' t know when it will explode. Thank you 🙂
Was wondering where u were. Yes, heard the typhoon was the strongest in like 20+ years and recorded some deaths in Taiwan and China. Glad you and your doggie are OK.
Hi guys,I' m back 🙂 strong typhoon hit my city, it came in around 1am midnight n I can feel the whole building vibrating (not exegerating). My dog n I looked at each other, thinking whether is the building going to collapse, really no joke.
The noise of the strong wind was just like those u.s disaster movie, loud n noisy. Whole night don' t dare to sleep. Next day when I woke up, both electricity n water supply were cut off, Internet also cut off (Internet just restored). I went down to the provision shop to buy mineral water, I couldn' t believed my eyes when I stepped out of the lift, the whole vicinity was in chao. I think at least 2/3 of the planted trees in the neighbourhood were brought down by the typhoon. Those iron grill or iron fence surrounded the estate were torn down. Car park shelters were blown off n shop display windows
smashed into pieces. The whole city brought to a standstill.
Yesterday while I was eating at the road stall, I heard some prc says ducks, chicken kept by farmers were all blown off, as a result for next few days there won' t b any supply. For the past 8 years I been through 2 mild earthquakes, numerous typhoon but none of them were as strong as this one, really no joke..we must really cherish our homeland, sg..free of natural disaster 🙂
