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Hi guys,
Just checked galaxy entertainment bouncing back toward its hkd30 valuation again. Anybody bought? If yes, I congrat u..this time I didn' t managed to buy in..sigh 🙁
Posted : 21/09/2016 10:28 am
Topic starter
Subject: Will U Marry Me?
All this while I have been writing theory n technical posts with regards to investment. Today I would like to share something interesting about the social phenomenon of the prc.
When I came to prc 7-8 years ago, a small city in Guangdong that look liked the 80s-90s sg..as I' m totally new to this city, no friends, don' t know anyone n my dog was still in sg, everyday I spent majority of the time doing my investment research at home. Whenever I have my breaks I would watched the prc tv programme. A very famous match making programme called 非 诚 勿 扰 was my favorite during that period (I' m a very geibo person)
In one episode, talking about many prc gals were going after rich man n to the extend that they r willing to become mistresses (小 三 ) as long as they r provided with money, branded stuff, comfortable life n etc. one of the female participant said the purpose of her joining the programme was to look for rich man, very honest n brave reply in front of 1.3 billion viewers. The host asked her whether was she worried of what others going to say about her n I still remembered her answer. She said she rather sit inside a BMW n cry than cry inside a public bus. Personally I think she was very smart to make use of the programme to advertise herself freely.
Female population in prc r lesser than male. As a result of law of scarcity (everything I can link to economic), a female will only marry a male provided that the male can afford to buy a property under her name (in general). Being a traditional society to find a wife to give birth to the next generation, sibling, parents, grand parents all break their piggy banks n coffin money to help the little groom to buy a property.
Property demand r further fuel by speculative demand from the rich n pushes the property price to rocket high. Property developers also joined in by deliberately making no progress to their construction of property after they had acquired the land so as to reduce the supply of properties n push up prices even higher. The provincial government literally closed both their eyes n let prices shoot up becos prc r unlike sg that derive its fiscal revenue mainly through tax, their main fiscal revenue come from sale of lands. The higher the property price rises, the more ppl will buy becos they worried that if they don' t buy it will go even higher. As a result both the developers n government were the ultimate winners.
For the past 8 years prc developers can closed both eyes n still get to sell off all their properties, everyday they were steady boon b b n it seem that the good days will last into infinity. Thus, they became very confident n aggressive in getting bank loans to bid for new lands n constructed more supply of properties. As a result we can see that all prc developers carried a debt ratio of more than 1 fold of its equity. They were not bothered with keeping cash on hand becos to them mkt was so good, keeping cash was not an efficient way to drive return. Thus they r high in gearing n low in cash on hand.
About 3 years ago, their central government announced policy to curb property demand n the impact of this policy soon became an atomic bomb to the prc property sector. Out of sudden, the robust demand for properties disappeared, developers were stuck with high unsold property inventories n some can' t even complete their project due to cut off of loan supply by the banks. As a result these developers plunged into cashflow problems n a few of them defaulted their debts. From then on everyone of them cry like baby.
As I have mentioned before, my preference is to invest in companies of zero to low debt, companies flooded with cash on hand n this two criterias r always a must. Buy n hold a company without this two criterias r as good as holding a time bomb, we wouldn' t know when it will explode. Thank you 🙂
Posted : 21/09/2016 10:15 am
Topic starter
Hi guys,
I' m back 🙂 strong typhoon hit my city, it came in around 1am midnight n I can feel the whole building vibrating (not exegerating). My dog n I looked at each other, thinking whether is the building going to collapse, really no joke.
The noise of the strong wind was just like those u.s disaster movie, loud n noisy. Whole night don' t dare to sleep. Next day when I woke up, both electricity n water supply were cut off, Internet also cut off (Internet just restored). I went down to the provision shop to buy mineral water, I couldn' t believed my eyes when I stepped out of the lift, the whole vicinity was in chao. I think at least 2/3 of the planted trees in the neighbourhood were brought down by the typhoon. Those iron grill or iron fence surrounded the estate were torn down. Car park shelters were blown off n shop display windows
smashed into pieces. The whole city brought to a standstill.
Yesterday while I was eating at the road stall, I heard some prc says ducks, chicken kept by farmers were all blown off, as a result for next few days there won' t b any supply. For the past 8 years I been through 2 mild earthquakes, numerous typhoon but none of them were as strong as this one, really no joke..we must really cherish our homeland, sg..free of natural disaster 🙂
Posted : 20/09/2016 3:00 pm
We often hear people said my dream is to own a condo. But seldom there are people said my dream is to own 20 lots OCBC.
Why so?
Posted : 20/09/2016 7:54 am
To commemorate our beloved leader and also I like famous and colour pink.
Your nick is famouspinky, that' s why I asked you whose birthday today.If you don' t know, you shouldn' t call yourself famouspinky!
I'm actually thinking Abt 20 y but if black Swan attack earlier, Ive to use my patented product to block it. I still have lots of dreams to be fulfilled.
Posted : 16/09/2016 8:05 am
Your nick is famouspinky, that' s why I asked you whose birthday today.
If you don' t know, you shouldn' t call yourself famouspinky!
I'm actually thinking Abt 20 y but if black Swan attack earlier, Ive to use my patented product to block it. I still have lots of dreams to be fulfilled.
U remind me, whose birthday today?
Posted : 16/09/2016 8:03 am
U remind me, whose birthday today?
10y more lol. Remember to vote for fp to fight black Swan. Lol
I think if we are talking about 10 years down the road, then the risk is unknown, doesn't mean non-exist. The sample size is too small, Sg is only 50 years old, if we cannot be 100% sure if will survive another 10 years. There are many things, each has a extremely low probability to occur, but if happen could be disaster. These are the black swans
Posted : 16/09/2016 7:52 am
10y more lol. Remember to vote for fp to fight black Swan. Lol
I think if we are talking about 10 years down the road, then the risk is unknown, doesn't mean non-exist. The sample size is too small, Sg is only 50 years old, if we cannot be 100% sure if will survive another 10 years. There are many things, each has a extremely low probability to occur, but if happen could be disaster. These are the black swans.
Like what kind of risks, may I know?Political , social, economic?
Posted : 16/09/2016 7:45 am
Very general your answer, leh.
Our sea lanes are cut off? Ships and containers will bypass Singapore ports?
Our neighbours become more radicalised?
Trump become president, no more free trade and dropped the nuclear bomb?
I think if we are talking about 10 years down the road, then the risk is unknown, doesn't mean non-exist. The sample size is too small, Sg is only 50 years old, if we cannot be 100% sure if will survive another 10 years. There are many things, each has a extremely low probability to occur, but if happen could be disaster. These are the black swans.
Like what kind of risks, may I know?Political , social, economic?
Posted : 16/09/2016 7:44 am
I think if we are talking about 10 years down the road, then the risk is unknown, doesn't mean non-exist. The sample size is too small, Sg is only 50 years old, if we cannot be 100% sure if will survive another 10 years. There are many things, each has a extremely low probability to occur, but if happen could be disaster. These are the black swans.
Like what kind of risks, may I know?Political , social, economic?
Civilization has improved over 5,000 years, though Singapore is only 50 years. Yes, there is certainly risk.
Posted : 16/09/2016 7:28 am
