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(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Reserve some stamina to dance more, now only the beginning 🙂

By the way, I just checked with one of the local agent recommended by Cain on help to transport pet dog from overseas to sg n their quotation is sgd1700 excluding their prc export agent fee. Anyone can advise whether is the price reasonable?

Posted: November 8, 2016 3:47 pm
Posted by: @hei123

willisow, welcome home.

I' m dancing over Genting. Still have.

Posted: November 7, 2016 9:23 am
Posted by: @willisow

I' m now at the airport watching m1 prices. I guess my sj friends must b dancing happily now :p

 
Posted : 08/11/2016 8:12 am
(@hei123)
Posts: 285
Reputable Member
 

willisow, welcome home.

I' m dancing over Genting. Still have.

Posted: November 7, 2016 9:23 am
Posted by: @willisow

I' m now at the airport watching m1 prices. I guess my sj friends must b dancing happily now :p

 
Posted : 08/11/2016 7:47 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

When a person is EMPTY, he will b easily filled by evil. Money is the root of all evil if we do not earn it through our own honest effort.

When someone started to question " y m I working so hard for money" it mean he had aged n his emptiness are filled with wisdom. Good morning to everyone 🙂

Ex-BSI banker trial: Yeo Jiawei ' lived jet-setting lifestyle, became more arrogant'

 
Posted : 08/11/2016 12:53 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Speculators continued to b greedy for genting..let pray they will b more n more greedy 🙂

 
Posted : 07/11/2016 9:52 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Hk property developers down 5-9% 🙂

Posted: November 4, 2016 7:29 pm
Posted by: @willisow

I just profited from my hk property stocks one month ago n now the hk government announced stamp duty to second property.

If this announcement serve as a catalyst for correction, opportunities may come along the way. Let pray, amitaba 🙂

香 港 增 加 二 套 房 印 花 税 防 楼 市 泡 沫 印 花 税 上 调 至 15%

11-04 18:4521世 纪 经 济 报 道

    11月 4日 , 香 港 特 区 政 府 宣 布 将 向 买 入 第 二 套 住 房 的 香 港 永 久 居 民 统 一 征 收 15%印 花 税 , 5日 起 生 效 , 旨 在 打 击 炒 作 风 气 。

    香 港 特 区 行 政 长 官 梁 振 英 与 财 政 司 司 长 曾 俊 华 、 运 输 及 房 屋 局 局 长 张 炳 良 、 发 展 局 局 长 陈 茂 波 等 多 名 官 员 4日 召 开 记 者 会 宣 布 了 此 消 息 。

    这 是 2015年 2月 以 来 香 港 特 区 政 府 首 次 加 &ldquo 辣 &rdquo , 按 照 新 规 无 论 以 个 人 名 义 或 公 司 名 义 购 买 第 二 层 楼 , 均 需 交 15%印 花 税 。 而 目 前 香 港 永 久 居 民 买 入 第 二 套 房 , 价 值 在 300万 港 元 至 400万 港 元 之 间 的 , 税 率 为 4.5%; 400万 至 600万 港 元 的 税 率 为 6%; 672万 港 元 以 上 的 为 7.5%; 2000万 港 元 以 上 为 8.5%。

    今 年 3月 以 来 , 香 港 楼 价 掉 头 向 上 , 3至 9月 楼 价 累 积 升 8.9%, 目 前 以 中 原 领 先 指 数 记 的 二 手 房 价 格 已 非 常 接 近 2015年 9月 的 历 史 峰 值 水 平 。 运 输 及 房 屋 局 局 长 张 炳 良 4日 表 示 , 投 资 者 再 度 活 跃 市 场 , 8-9月 投 资 者 交 易 环 比 升 50%, 9月 升 至 2600宗 纪 录 新 高 , 拥 有 一 处 以 上 物 业 的 香 港 港 永 久 居 民 交 易 9月 达 2300宗 , 当 前 楼 宇 风 险 上 升 , 对 社 会 有 破 坏 力 。

    梁 振 英 表 示 , 过 去 港 府 利 用 印 花 税 去 遏 抑 三 方 面 非 自 住 需 求 , 成 功 减 低 来 自 炒 卖 、 外 来 的 需 求 , 但 投 资 需 求 却 仍 主 导 市 场 。

    特 区 财 政 司 司 长 曾 俊 华 认 为 , 要 关 注 楼 市 泡 沫 风 险 恶 化 , 需 采 取 行 动 , 以 免 危 及 经 济 、 金 融 系 统 。

    对 此 轮 香 港 楼 价 上 涨 , 有 人 认 为 人 民 币 贬 值 的 大 背 景 下 来 自 内 地 的 资 金 推 高 了 房 价 ; 但 也 有 反 对 者 指 , 事 实 上 不 少 大 手 笔 的 豪 宅 买 家 早 年 已 取 得 香 港 永 久 居 民 身 分 。

 
Posted : 07/11/2016 2:17 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

I' m now at the airport watching m1 prices. I guess my sj friends must b dancing happily now :p

 
Posted : 07/11/2016 1:23 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

书 呆 子 之 见 , 见 笑 了 。 thank you reading 🙂

Posted: November 6, 2016 7:47 pm
Posted by: @brchkho1

Thanks for your good sharing. Looking forward to reding your postings to learn more. Cheers.
Posted: November 6, 2016 6:58 pm
Posted by: @willisow

Hi pal,

What u have mentioned, most likely will b rebutted by warren Buffett fans 🙂 warren did not say mr market is always right. Both warren n his mentor, Benjamin graham, the father of value investing said that stock mkt in the short n long run are voting n weighting machine.

A voting mechanism mean it may not b right for the majority vote but majority think that they r right. A weighting mechanism mean over the long run, the true value a of company will be weighted n reflected in the stock mkt. it is bcos that mr market is wrong most of the time in the short run, it create an opportunity for contrarian profit for the value investors. If mr market is always right, there is no need to analyse a company which warren placed great emphasis, we just need to buy at our comfort price as shared by u.

You r right that analysts adopt different assumptions n models in their valuation. However a differential in their view with us doesn' t mean that they are wrong n subjective. If an analyst based his valuation at a recession assumption and the market is still bullish n economy is doing well, that doesn' t mean that he is wrong just bcos his estimated value is different from the current stock price. The purpose of using assumption is to anticipate n not to follow the mkt, otherwise there wouldn' t b a contrarian view as taught by Benjamin graham.

Secondly, analyst only provide a fair value to the public but they do not give us the margin of safety to buy. This is the primary teaching of value investing to safeguard our own capital bcos a fair value of a company can change with its earning, without buying at a safety margin n follow blindly the publication by analysts are equally at risk. Hence, as an investor, we should view analyst comment as a secondary opinion to our own analysis. When I mean secondary is to look for pointers that analyst point up n omitted by us but not to view that their works are immaterial important. This is my basic respect for analyst.

Thirdly, a thorough analysis of a company past performance is an important filtering net for good companies. Although past performance is not a guarantee of the future, it does tell us the probability of duplicating its past success into the future as compared to a company with unstable n inconsistent past performance. Thus it is not something that we investor can' t do about it. The minimum that we can do is to filter n select a good company for our investable fund n not invest with our own thoughts n conclusions without any supporting stats.

Fourthly, an intrinsic value of a company is not up to investor to assess or guess. It is an estimated fair value based on its future stream of earnings n net assets at present value. A variance in its fair value are largely due to different expectation of variables such as growth rate n etc in tabulating the intrinsic value.

Hence, it is always within a range for negotiation. When I mean within a range, I' m referring to a growth rate of zero to x percent. In a real world m& a the negotiation are largely based on a company future growth argue between the buyer n seller bcos there won' t be much arguments needed for assessments of its net assets. A seller will try to form its intrinsic value at a higher growth rate n a buyer will do the opposite, thus it will need several negotiation before a deal is hammered.

However, as an ordinary investor we do not need to go through such hassle, we can make use of the imperfection of mr mkt to estimate a company intrinsic value at our advantage. We can assumed a zero growth rate when we buy n such assumption literally give us an opportunity to fish good deals during a recession ( this is taught by benjamin graham). Hence it is not an assessment or guess of the intrinsic value, it can b quantified to our advantage n not based on one thought to buy.

Thus, your understanding of warren Buffett or Benjamin graham teaching are not in line with the norms :p

Lastly, to buy at our own comfortable price is an exact core violation of benjamin teaching. How do we quantify as " comfort" ? How do we know that the so called comfort price is a cheap n safe price n by what measurement? Investment is an art n social science subject. It is science bcos we can quantify n formed a conclusion to our investment decision. It is an art bcos it required logic n other non numerical variables to execute the entire process. Example, being patience is an art to the entire investment process. If we buy at our own comfort price, it neither offered quantitative conclusion nor logical execution which are definitely not taught by Benjamin graham or warren Buffett. Thank you 🙂


 
Posted : 06/11/2016 12:47 pm
(@brchkho1)
Posts: 373
Reputable Member
 

Thanks for your good sharing. Looking forward to reding your postings to learn more. Cheers.

Posted: November 6, 2016 6:58 pm
Posted by: @willisow

Hi pal,

What u have mentioned, most likely will b rebutted by warren Buffett fans 🙂 warren did not say mr market is always right. Both warren n his mentor, Benjamin graham, the father of value investing said that stock mkt in the short n long run are voting n weighting machine.

A voting mechanism mean it may not b right for the majority vote but majority think that they r right. A weighting mechanism mean over the long run, the true value a of company will be weighted n reflected in the stock mkt. it is bcos that mr market is wrong most of the time in the short run, it create an opportunity for contrarian profit for the value investors. If mr market is always right, there is no need to analyse a company which warren placed great emphasis, we just need to buy at our comfort price as shared by u.

You r right that analysts adopt different assumptions n models in their valuation. However a differential in their view with us doesn' t mean that they are wrong n subjective. If an analyst based his valuation at a recession assumption and the market is still bullish n economy is doing well, that doesn' t mean that he is wrong just bcos his estimated value is different from the current stock price. The purpose of using assumption is to anticipate n not to follow the mkt, otherwise there wouldn' t b a contrarian view as taught by Benjamin graham.

Secondly, analyst only provide a fair value to the public but they do not give us the margin of safety to buy. This is the primary teaching of value investing to safeguard our own capital bcos a fair value of a company can change with its earning, without buying at a safety margin n follow blindly the publication by analysts are equally at risk. Hence, as an investor, we should view analyst comment as a secondary opinion to our own analysis. When I mean secondary is to look for pointers that analyst point up n omitted by us but not to view that their works are immaterial important. This is my basic respect for analyst.

Thirdly, a thorough analysis of a company past performance is an important filtering net for good companies. Although past performance is not a guarantee of the future, it does tell us the probability of duplicating its past success into the future as compared to a company with unstable n inconsistent past performance. Thus it is not something that we investor can' t do about it. The minimum that we can do is to filter n select a good company for our investable fund n not invest with our own thoughts n conclusions without any supporting stats.

Fourthly, an intrinsic value of a company is not up to investor to assess or guess. It is an estimated fair value based on its future stream of earnings n net assets at present value. A variance in its fair value are largely due to different expectation of variables such as growth rate n etc in tabulating the intrinsic value.

Hence, it is always within a range for negotiation. When I mean within a range, I' m referring to a growth rate of zero to x percent. In a real world m& a the negotiation are largely based on a company future growth argue between the buyer n seller bcos there won' t be much arguments needed for assessments of its net assets. A seller will try to form its intrinsic value at a higher growth rate n a buyer will do the opposite, thus it will need several negotiation before a deal is hammered.

However, as an ordinary investor we do not need to go through such hassle, we can make use of the imperfection of mr mkt to estimate a company intrinsic value at our advantage. We can assumed a zero growth rate when we buy n such assumption literally give us an opportunity to fish good deals during a recession ( this is taught by benjamin graham). Hence it is not an assessment or guess of the intrinsic value, it can b quantified to our advantage n not based on one thought to buy.

Thus, your understanding of warren Buffett or Benjamin graham teaching are not in line with the norms :p

Lastly, to buy at our own comfortable price is an exact core violation of benjamin teaching. How do we quantify as " comfort" ? How do we know that the so called comfort price is a cheap n safe price n by what measurement? Investment is an art n social science subject. It is science bcos we can quantify n formed a conclusion to our investment decision. It is an art bcos it required logic n other non numerical variables to execute the entire process. Example, being patience is an art to the entire investment process. If we buy at our own comfort price, it neither offered quantitative conclusion nor logical execution which are definitely not taught by Benjamin graham or warren Buffett. Thank you 🙂

Posted: November 6, 2016 4:30 pm
Posted by: @brchkho1

The prices of the stocks depend on someone by the name of, Mr Market as WB put it and Mr Market is always right. The investors and analysts are projecting the prices based on various assumptions which are subjective. The intrinsic value of any company is up to investors to assess. What will happen in future is only up to us to guess and imagine, we can not do anything to the past, but we can choose to act now by watching the prices and enter at whatever comfortable level one deems.

 
Posted : 06/11/2016 11:47 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

I congrat u for finding yourselve a good girl friend 🙂

Posted: November 6, 2016 5:02 pm
Posted by: @brchkho1

One other issue, she pays her own air fare to SG, all I do is to get her the visa. No shopping of branded goods at all in all her past visits.
Posted: November 6, 2016 4:58 pm
Posted by: @brchkho1

It' s good to share about PRC girl friends. Had several girl friends from PRC, most of them are rather desperate to get a foreigner to get out of PRC which had put me off. My current girl friend is well off in PRC, It does not matter if she get PR, citizenship or to getting married. What I have in SG, she has them in PRC, if not better. I owned 1 flat, but she has two apartments. I have no car and she drives around when I visit her. When having meals in SG, she refuses to go to restaurant but, food court or she will cook at home. Her son is running 2 private schools. When her friends or relative coming to SG and asked her for my contact no, she will tell them I am outstation and unbale to play host to them as she does not want to inconvenience me. One thing is similar to you situation, I have track shoes that have more holes as I jog a lot, and she advised me to put on my other track shoes, but no comment of wearing slippers , So, it all depends on who you met. winkwink

 
Posted : 06/11/2016 11:00 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 
Hi pal,
What u have mentioned, most likely will b rebutted by warren Buffett fans 🙂 warren did not say mr market is always right. Both warren n his mentor, Benjamin graham, the father of value investing said that stock mkt in the short n long run are voting n weighting machine.
A voting mechanism mean it may not b right for the majority vote but majority think that they r right. A weighting mechanism mean over the long run, the true value a of company will be weighted n reflected in the stock mkt. it is bcos that mr market is wrong most of the time in the short run, it create an opportunity for contrarian profit for the value investors. If mr market is always right, there is no need to analyse a company which warren placed great emphasis, we just need to buy at our comfort price as shared by u.
You r right that analysts adopt different assumptions n models in their valuation. However a differential in their view with us doesn' t mean that they are wrong n subjective. If an analyst based his valuation at a recession assumption and the market is still bullish n economy is doing well, that doesn' t mean that he is wrong just bcos his estimated value is different from the current stock price. The purpose of using assumption is to anticipate n not to follow the mkt, otherwise there wouldn' t b a contrarian view as taught by Benjamin graham.
Secondly, analyst only provide a fair value to the public but they do not give us the margin of safety to buy. This is the primary teaching of value investing to safeguard our own capital bcos a fair value of a company can change with its earning, without buying at a safety margin n follow blindly the publication by analysts are equally at risk. Hence, as an investor, we should view analyst comment as a secondary opinion to our own analysis. When I mean secondary is to look for pointers that analyst point up n omitted by us but not to view that their works are immaterial important. This is my basic respect for analyst.
Thirdly, a thorough analysis of a company past performance is an important filtering net for good companies. Although past performance is not a guarantee of the future, it does tell us the probability of duplicating its past success into the future as compared to a company with unstable n inconsistent past performance. Thus it is not something that we investor can' t do about it. The minimum that we can do is to filter n select a good company for our investable fund n not invest with our own thoughts n conclusions without any supporting stats.
Fourthly, an intrinsic value of a company is not up to investor to assess or guess. It is an estimated fair value based on its future stream of earnings n net assets at present value. A variance in its fair value are largely due to different expectation of variables such as growth rate n etc in tabulating the intrinsic value.
Hence, it is always within a range for negotiation. When I mean within a range, I' m referring to a growth rate of zero to x percent. In a real world m& a the negotiation are largely based on a company future growth argue between the buyer n seller bcos there won' t be much arguments needed for assessments of its net assets. A seller will try to form its intrinsic value at a higher growth rate n a buyer will do the opposite, thus it will need several negotiation before a deal is hammered.
However, as an ordinary investor we do not need to go through such hassle, we can make use of the imperfection of mr mkt to estimate a company intrinsic value at our advantage. We can assumed a zero growth rate when we buy n such assumption literally give us an opportunity to fish good deals during a recession ( this is taught by benjamin graham). Hence it is not an assessment or guess of the intrinsic value, it can b quantified to our advantage n not based on one thought to buy.
Thus, your understanding of warren Buffett or Benjamin graham teaching are not in line with the norms :p
Lastly, to buy at our own comfortable price is an exact core violation of benjamin teaching. How do we quantify as " comfort" ? How do we know that the so called comfort price is a cheap n safe price n by what measurement? Investment is an art n social science subject. It is science bcos we can quantify n formed a conclusion to our investment decision. It is an art bcos it required logic n other non numerical variables to execute the entire process. Example, being patience is an art to the entire investment process. If we buy at our own comfort price, it neither offered quantitative conclusion nor logical execution which are definitely not taught by Benjamin graham or warren Buffett. Thank you 🙂

Posted: November 6, 2016 4:30 pm
Posted by: @brchkho1

The prices of the stocks depend on someone by the name of, Mr Market as WB put it and Mr Market is always right. The investors and analysts are projecting the prices based on various assumptions which are subjective. The intrinsic value of any company is up to investors to assess. What will happen in future is only up to us to guess and imagine, we can not do anything to the past, but we can choose to act now by watching the prices and enter at whatever comfortable level one deems.
Posted: November 6, 2016 9:37 am
Posted by: @willisow

Singpost announced a cut in quarterly dividend from 1.5 cents to 1 cent which represent a yearly reduction of dividend from 6 to 4 cents. Singpost was a classic example of dividend stock n it' s share price had been supported by its dividend yield. A 5% dividend yield at 6 cents dividend will support its price at sgd1.20. Thus, a 5% dividend yield at 4 cents dividend will support its price at sgd0.80.

Of cos, I' m not implying it' s share price will fall to sgd0.80, the above illustrations are only in term of theory. The actual price movement may or may not happen, I can' t predict it. This is an example which I had indicated earlier on about analysts using different valuation model will produced different fair value of the company.

Hence, analysts values served as a variety of second opinion bcos every analyst could b using different model, assumption n etc to value a company. However, we should still based on our own calculation bcos we know the variables n model used n also the logic of our own calculation. By knowing all these foundation we will exhibit a higher confident in our own valuation n will b able to hold onto the stock.

I have also mentioned in the past that an analyst can' t give two values concurrently. Using genting as an example, I have provided a fair value of sgd0.82 based n current earning n a fair value of sgd1.03 estimated based n future projected earnings. There is no right or wrong as to these two value. If one is more conservative about the future, current fair value will b useful in his decision making vice versa. Thank you 🙂


 
Posted : 06/11/2016 10:58 am
(@brchkho1)
Posts: 373
Reputable Member
 

One other issue, she pays her own air fare to SG, all I do is to get her the visa. No shopping of branded goods at all in all her past visits.

Posted: November 6, 2016 4:58 pm
Posted by: @brchkho1

It' s good to share about PRC girl friends. Had several girl friends from PRC, most of them are rather desperate to get a foreigner to get out of PRC which had put me off. My current girl friend is well off in PRC, It does not matter if she get PR, citizenship or to getting married. What I have in SG, she has them in PRC, if not better. I owned 1 flat, but she has two apartments. I have no car and she drives around when I visit her. When having meals in SG, she refuses to go to restaurant but, food court or she will cook at home. Her son is running 2 private schools. When her friends or relative coming to SG and asked her for my contact no, she will tell them I am outstation and unbale to play host to them as she does not want to inconvenience me. One thing is similar to you situation, I have track shoes that have more holes as I jog a lot, and she advised me to put on my other track shoes, but no comment of wearing slippers , So, it all depends on who you met. winkwink
Posted: November 4, 2016 6:25 pm
Posted by: @willisow

Just now when I was having my dinner, I heard a couple arguing with each other. Being a kaypoh uncle, I put my ear nearer to listen to what they argue about. The girl said to the guy that she short of rmb50k to open a shop n asked the guy to lend it to her. From the conversation, I think the guy is her boyfriend.

The guy said, I saved the money for very long, what if your business fail, there goes all my money. The girl replied angrily n said me more important or money more important? You love me more or money more. I wanted to listen more but they discovered I eardrop n scolded me so I paiseh n dare not listen anymore.

Personally I think this is the problem for Asian, can' t distinguish between love n respect. I love u doesn' t mean I have to accede to your request n u must also respect my decision bcos anything related to money must b dealt sensibly n not emotionally.

Just like the previous prc girl who I knew asked me to buy branded cosmetic from hk for her, on the spot I rejected her n said I can give u tips to buy stock n if u make money u can then buy the cosmetic yourself, thereafter she never contact me anymore. Of cos I' m certainly a miser, however it is also a blessing that I knew one less insincere ppl like her 🙂

Hence, I think western way of dating is the best, very clear cut. Before marriage sign a contract n spell out everything clearly just in case thereafter divorce. But I don' t encourage anyone to think like me otherwise u will b like me, nobody want 🙂


 
Posted : 06/11/2016 9:02 am
(@brchkho1)
Posts: 373
Reputable Member
 

It' s good to share about PRC girl friends. Had several girl friends from PRC, most of them are rather desperate to get a foreigner to get out of PRC which had put me off. My current girl friend is well off in PRC, It does not matter if she get PR, citizenship or to getting married. What I have in SG, she has them in PRC, if not better. I owned 1 flat, but she has two apartments. I have no car and she drives around when I visit her. When having meals in SG, she refuses to go to restaurant but, food court or she will cook at home. Her son is running 2 private schools. When her friends or relative coming to SG and asked her for my contact no, she will tell them I am outstation and unbale to play host to them as she does not want to inconvenience me. One thing is similar to you situation, I have track shoes that have more holes as I jog a lot, and she advised me to put on my other track shoes, but no comment of wearing slippers , So, it all depends on who you met. winkwink

Posted: November 4, 2016 6:25 pm
Posted by: @willisow

Just now when I was having my dinner, I heard a couple arguing with each other. Being a kaypoh uncle, I put my ear nearer to listen to what they argue about. The girl said to the guy that she short of rmb50k to open a shop n asked the guy to lend it to her. From the conversation, I think the guy is her boyfriend.

The guy said, I saved the money for very long, what if your business fail, there goes all my money. The girl replied angrily n said me more important or money more important? You love me more or money more. I wanted to listen more but they discovered I eardrop n scolded me so I paiseh n dare not listen anymore.

Personally I think this is the problem for Asian, can' t distinguish between love n respect. I love u doesn' t mean I have to accede to your request n u must also respect my decision bcos anything related to money must b dealt sensibly n not emotionally.

Just like the previous prc girl who I knew asked me to buy branded cosmetic from hk for her, on the spot I rejected her n said I can give u tips to buy stock n if u make money u can then buy the cosmetic yourself, thereafter she never contact me anymore. Of cos I' m certainly a miser, however it is also a blessing that I knew one less insincere ppl like her 🙂

Hence, I think western way of dating is the best, very clear cut. Before marriage sign a contract n spell out everything clearly just in case thereafter divorce. But I don' t encourage anyone to think like me otherwise u will b like me, nobody want 🙂

 
Posted : 06/11/2016 8:58 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

Subject: Breadtalk Valuation

announced its Q3 and 9 months financial results. Both Q3 and 9 months operating earnings increased by 30% and 12.3% on a year on year basis. Year to date revenue fell by 1.6% and most likely was due to cautious spending by consumers being affected by the global economy slowdown. However the company managed to maintain its growth from cost cutting. Breadtalk had maintained a pretty good track record of growth since 2006 and throughout the past 11 years, it maintained positive yearly growth even during the period of global financial crsis.

Due to the company rapid expansion, it maintained a high debt ratio at 1.53 times its shareholder equity. 84% of the total debts are long term and its available cash covered 3.7 times its short term debt borrowings. In addition, its yearly operating earning covered 12.8 times its interest expense and able to fully pay off its debt within 2.5 years assuming no payment of dividend and further capex spending. Personally i do not like high debt company but it is still alright for Breadtalk bcos it is unlikely to fall into a default trap since it maintained pretty good cash position and its operating earnings are more than enough to service its interest payments. Although it is in my research pool, i will only invest relatively small amount given an opportunity bcos it is still a small company as compared to the blue chips.

My own assessment for breadtalk value is revised up from SGD1.18 to SGD1.22 and ideal entry price at SGD0.63 or below. Breadtalk had no history of operating earnings declined for past 11 years but its share fell more than 50% in 2008, Hence we still need to buffer 50% safety margin due to it is a small and medium company which shares can be easily affected by bad sentiment such as systematic risk resulted from recession. Below are analyst reference for second opinion. Thank you 🙂

SGX : BreadTalk BREADTALK GROUP LIMITED
Last Price Avg Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call
1.005 1.15 +0.145 (14.43%)
* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.
** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).
Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source News
04/11/2016 0.99 1.09 +0.10 (10.10%) HOLD OCBC Price Target News
03/11/2016 0.98 0.99 +0.01 (1.02%) SELL OCBC Price Target News
03/10/2016 0.99 0.99 0.00 (0.00%) SELL OCBC Price Target News
05/08/2016 1.09 1.45 +0.36 (33.03%) BUY RHB Price Target News
05/08/2016 1.09 0.99 -0.10 (9.17%) SELL OCBC Price Target News
04/08/2016 1.105 0.96 -0.145 (13.12%) SELL OCBC Price Target News
15/07/2016 1.135 1.28 +0.145 (12.78%) BUY Daiwa Price Target News
13/06/2016 1.15 0.96 -0.19 (16.52%) SELL OCBC Price Target News
10/05/2016 1.16 0.96 -0.20 (17.24%) SELL OCBC Price Target News
 
Posted : 06/11/2016 8:47 am
(@brchkho1)
Posts: 373
Reputable Member
 

The prices of the stocks depend on someone by the name of, Mr Market as WB put it and Mr Market is always right. The investors and analysts are projecting the prices based on various assumptions which are subjective. The intrinsic value of any company is up to investors to assess. What will happen in future is only up to us to guess and imagine, we can not do anything to the past, but we can choose to act now by watching the prices and enter at whatever comfortable level one deems.

Posted: November 6, 2016 9:37 am
Posted by: @willisow

Singpost announced a cut in quarterly dividend from 1.5 cents to 1 cent which represent a yearly reduction of dividend from 6 to 4 cents. Singpost was a classic example of dividend stock n it' s share price had been supported by its dividend yield. A 5% dividend yield at 6 cents dividend will support its price at sgd1.20. Thus, a 5% dividend yield at 4 cents dividend will support its price at sgd0.80.

Of cos, I' m not implying it' s share price will fall to sgd0.80, the above illustrations are only in term of theory. The actual price movement may or may not happen, I can' t predict it. This is an example which I had indicated earlier on about analysts using different valuation model will produced different fair value of the company.

Hence, analysts values served as a variety of second opinion bcos every analyst could b using different model, assumption n etc to value a company. However, we should still based on our own calculation bcos we know the variables n model used n also the logic of our own calculation. By knowing all these foundation we will exhibit a higher confident in our own valuation n will b able to hold onto the stock.

I have also mentioned in the past that an analyst can' t give two values concurrently. Using genting as an example, I have provided a fair value of sgd0.82 based n current earning n a fair value of sgd1.03 estimated based n future projected earnings. There is no right or wrong as to these two value. If one is more conservative about the future, current fair value will b useful in his decision making vice versa. Thank you 🙂

Posted: November 4, 2016 10:58 pm
Posted by: @willisow

Subject: Singpost Valuation

announced its Q2 and 6 months financial results. Both Q2 and 6 months operating earnings increased by 4.55% and 9.38% on a year on year basis. As compared to Q1 growth of 15.38%, Q2 had slowed down considerably and mainly due to volume related expenses increased by 38.5% and revenue increased by 22.4% as compared to the same quarter a year ago. Hence cost is rising faster than its revenue in Q2 and operating profit margin was reduced from 16.73% (2016 Q2) to 14.29% (2017 Q2).

My own assessment of its fair value stand at SGD1.09 and ideal entry price at SGD0.93. Below are analyst reference for second opinion. Thank you 🙂

SGX : SingPost

SINGAPORE POST LIMITED

Last Price
Avg Target Price
Upside/Downside
Price Call

1.65
1.60
-0.05 (3.03%)

* Average Target Price, Price Call and Upside/Downside are derived from Price Targets in the past 6 months.

** Price Targets are adjusted for Bonus Issue, Shares Split & Shares Consolidation (where applicable).

Date Open Price Target Price Upside/Downside Price Call Source News

02/11/2016
1.605
1.77
+0.165 (10.28%)
BUY
Maybank Kim Eng
Price Target News

28/10/2016
1.59
1.77
+0.18 (11.32%)
BUY
UOB KayHian
Price Target News

28/10/2016
1.59
1.42
-0.17 (10.69%)
HOLD
OCBC
Price Target News

28/10/2016
1.59
1.77
+0.18 (11.32%)
BUY
Maybank Kim Eng
Price Target News

28/10/2016
1.59
1.76
+0.17 (10.69%)
BUY
CIMB
Price Target News

11/10/2016
1.53
1.77
+0.24 (15.69%)
BUY
Maybank Kim Eng
Price Target News

04/10/2016
1.48
1.77
+0.29 (19.59%)
HOLD
UOB KayHian
Price Target News

20/09/2016
1.445
1.77
+0.325 (22.49%)
BUY
Maybank Kim Eng
Price Target News

29/08/2016
1.365
1.42
+0.055 (4.03%)
HOLD
OCBC
Price Target News

05/08/2016
1.435
1.53
+0.095 (6.62%)
HOLD
UBS
Price Target News

05/08/2016
1.435
1.42
-0.015 (1.05%)
HOLD
OCBC
Price Target News

25/07/2016
1.49
1.64
+0.15 (10.07%)
HOLD
UOB KayHian
Price Target News

15/07/2016
1.535
1.29
-0.245 (15.96%)
SELL
Maybank Kim Eng
Price Target News

07/07/2016
1.545
1.49
-0.055 (3.56%)
HOLD
CIMB
Price Target News

22/06/2016
1.55
1.29
-0.26 (16.77%)
SELL
Maybank Kim Eng
Price Target News

16/06/2016
1.555
1.29
-0.265 (17.04%)
SELL
Maybank Kim Eng
Price Target News

14/06/2016
1.555
1.29
-0.265 (17.04%)
SELL
Maybank Kim Eng
Price Target News

11/05/2016
1.60
1.56
-0.04 (2.50%)
HOLD
OCBC
Price Target News


 
Posted : 06/11/2016 8:30 am
(@willisow)
Posts: 728
Honorable Member
Topic starter
 

My friend fast food shop, if u come prc can try out his hotdog bun 🙂

福 利 时 间 |多 食 达 冬 季 会 员 活 动

2016-11-03 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxMzAzODY1OQ==& mid=2655003428& idx=1& sn=6cc8c07a768c862b6e07dc8524be23bc& chksm=801c2608b76baf1ea1f3fff2f7925d7d31203926c706b66662d35e06febd692468c11fe15fb5& mpshare=1& scene=2& srcid=11037rgSWNlkwYaOYMtEUQG6& from=timeline& isappinstalled=0& key=cde9f53f8128acbdef2f992e6dab5b710064ca0226947032d0708c242255eaebb55a84a020e80f485ea7645bd8563125& ascene=2& uin=MjM4MTEyMTE2Mg%3D%3D& devicetype=iPad+iPhone+OS5.1.1& version=16000114& pass_ticket=Ao8qv2tCxRXrVvAHhYsW8KMCQiNTkgxv%2FmFMzr3Qts%2BeBGI1%2BngSVlra5ceFRV4U" id="post-user">多 食 达 DOGSTAR

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2016.11.1-2017.3.31

正 价 消 费 满 30

赠 送 小 吃 1份

( 价 值 9元 )

小 吃 : 藤 椒 鸡 腿 、 多 乐 鸡 块 、 香 酥 鳕 鱼 、 黄 金 脆 虾 、 西 班 牙 香 肠 等 ( 薯 条 类 商 品 除 外 )

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Posted : 06/11/2016 5:21 am
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