Forum

Sembmarine
 
Notifications
Clear all

Sembmarine

1,345 Posts
167 Users
0 Reactions
917.8 K Views
(@qanghoo)
Posts: 5029
Illustrious Member
 

Oil px had been weakening over the past wk already. Yet, this one, n other OnG stocks too, all chionged. Classic pump n dump the last few days. Sadly, I' m sure some kena baited. SembMarine is not a 1$ stock in my view. But also no reason for the sudden spectacular rocket the last few days.

Posted: November 12, 2016 1:07 pm
Posted by: @john_ric

crude oil drop a lot.

.

 
Posted : 12/11/2016 1:43 pm
(@john_ric)
Posts: 546
Honorable Member
 

crude oil drop a lot.

.

 
Posted : 12/11/2016 5:07 am
(@breadpitt)
Posts: 83
Trusted Member
 

Dont read too much on these reports, now is the sentiment and fever is still prevalent.
Invisible hands supporting the prices this week are still there.

 
Posted : 11/11/2016 2:16 pm
(@investlin78)
Posts: 34
Eminent Member
 

Pls note that when some reputable persons(?) starting to write good things/report on SMM (or other stocks) the stock would have already run up from low. DYODD on the comfortable enter point.

 
Posted : 11/11/2016 10:40 am
(@waters)
Posts: 262
Reputable Member
 
Sembcorp Marine | https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/uSEsDPvsFTfxpgvUANTCACDTshAzh2JyzUVF86zbV5t4f6uOGfP1Pgk7XveCSi71AmrVCli9MKDWJw2.pd f" target="_blank">PDF
Burdened investment
SMM SP / SCMN.SI | REDUCE - Maintained | S$1.32 tp:S$0.90
Mkt.Cap:US$1,974.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$4.58m | Free Float:37.20%
Offshore & Marine
Author(s):Siew Khee LIM +65 6210 8664,
■ With a S$21m net loss in 3Q16, SMM missed both our and Bloomberg consensus expectations, dragged by its share of losses and impairment in Cosco Corp.
■ 3Q16 EBIT margin plunged to 3.7% (1H15: 6.9%) mainly from the weaker operating leverage and forex loss due to the revaluation of assets in GBP.
■ We are still wary of potential impairment for contagious jack-up rigs, but management sounded confident that provisions made in 2015 are adequate.
■ Cashflow improvement did not surprise us, coming mainly from final receipts from the Noble and Denorske projects in Jul 2016, but may not be sustainable into 4Q16.
■ Maintain Reduce but a successful sale of high-risk rigs could be a rerating catalyst.
Cosco nightmare lingers
SMM&rsquo s share of Cosco Corp&rsquo s losses was S$27m as the yard issued a profit warning for a higher net loss in 3Q16 due to order cancellations, delivery delays, higher construction costs and provisions. SMM also made a S$3.8m provision for its stake in Cosco Corp (to add to the S$8.4m impairment in 2Q16). There is no clear strategy articulated on its stake in Cosco Shipyard Group or Cosco Corp but we believe the group restructuring at the China Cosco Shipping Corporation level may complicate any divestment possibility.

How low can margins go?
Recurring forex losses from the weakening GBP have weakened 9M16&rsquo s EBIT margin to 5.8%. Excluding the forex impact (-S$18.8m), the EBIT margin would have been 8%. We cut our average EBIT margin assumptions for FY16-18F from c.8% to c.7.4%.

We are wary of provisions
Management reiterated that the S$280m provision made in 2015 for Perisai, Oro Negro and North Atlantic Drilling Rigs takes into account the prolonged deferment and possible cancellations of these contracts. Perisai&rsquo s rig no. 1 is complete and technically accepted while rig no. 2 is due for completion in 4Q16. We would question the potential downward revision in assumptions made for the WIP on the balance sheet if these rigs are not sold in the next 12 months, given the global rig supply glut situation, despite the recovery in oil prices.

Cashflow improvement not a surprise, but still tight
SMM generated S$796m in operating cashflows in 3Q16 on final receipts from Noble jack-up (S$358m) and Denorske platform (S$358m). SMM was noncommittal on 4Q16F deliveries other than FSO Gina Krog (conversion contract at c. S$220m). We believe the delivery timeline for FPSO for OOGTK Libra (collection of c.S$400m) could be delayed to 2017 from end-2016. Net gearing stood at 1.04x. YTD new orders were S$320m from LNG modules and FPSO variation orders. Order book stood at S$5.2bn, ex-Sete Brasil.

Maintain Reduce
We cut our FY16-18F EPS by 18-32% to account for weaker associates and margins. We do not rule out the possibility of a cash call if SMM continues to be crippled by weak orders and difficulties in disposing of its risky rigs by 2017. We maintain our Reduce call and our target price based on long-term trough valuation of 1x FY17F P/BV and net of partial impairment in Brazilian yard. Upside risks to our call include a stronger-than-expected sustained recovery in oil prices.

 
Posted : 11/11/2016 9:32 am
(@qanghoo)
Posts: 5029
Illustrious Member
 

They are just rubbish. Some I' ve read showed a shocking lack of understanding of the stocks they were writing abt. Others were out to sensationalise n were less than balanced.

Posted: November 11, 2016 9:49 am
Posted by: @sgtrader18

these days no one bother to listen to them liao. best is do your own thinking or talk to someone who dont have an ything to gain from your buying.
Posted: November 11, 2016 9:24 am
Posted by: @naval_architect

Remiser has to stroke panic and greed to encourage trading (and fattening their wallets)

If a remiser say your portfolio is good, and no need to buy or sell any shares, then he eat what?

Eat air ah


 
Posted : 11/11/2016 1:55 am
(@sgtrader18)
Posts: 106
Estimable Member
 

these days no one bother to listen to them liao. best is do your own thinking or talk to someone who dont have an ything to gain from your buying.

Posted: November 11, 2016 9:24 am
Posted by: @naval_architect

Remiser has to stroke panic and greed to encourage trading (and fattening their wallets)

If a remiser say your portfolio is good, and no need to buy or sell any shares, then he eat what?

Eat air ah

 
Posted : 11/11/2016 1:49 am
 C Dw
(@naval_architect)
Posts: 2
New Member
 

Remiser has to stroke panic and greed to encourage trading (and fattening their wallets)

If a remiser say your portfolio is good, and no need to buy or sell any shares, then he eat what?

Eat air ah

 
Posted : 11/11/2016 1:24 am
(@sgtrader18)
Posts: 106
Estimable Member
 

if the remisier any good then he most likely no need to give talks le. dyodd.

Posted: November 11, 2016 8:52 am
Posted by: @ysh2006

Recently attended submarine remisier seminar outlook he don' t look good on this stock.....target $1.00 only.....
Posted: November 11, 2016 8:46 am
Posted by: @sgtrader18

very likely he will allow shale oil to operate further, given now he has to prove a lot of people wrong but as a businessman he will most likely going to try to push the price up first, I guess tthat is why oil jump when the news of him taking the oval office came out. this fuel people to move back into oil, with hopes that he will push the oil back up to 70+ or at least profitable. one thing highly likely is he wont try to supress oil, thus the post below is thinking of buying at 1.45. cause at this price there is so much room for regrowth and very little downside.

after all its like a pro and con thing for the investors. trump take the hot seat is going to be good for oil at the end of the day.


 
Posted : 11/11/2016 12:58 am
(@ysh2006)
Posts: 870
Prominent Member
 

Recently attended submarine remisier seminar outlook he don' t look good on this stock.....target $1.00 only.....

Posted: November 11, 2016 8:46 am
Posted by: @sgtrader18

very likely he will allow shale oil to operate further, given now he has to prove a lot of people wrong but as a businessman he will most likely going to try to push the price up first, I guess tthat is why oil jump when the news of him taking the oval office came out. this fuel people to move back into oil, with hopes that he will push the oil back up to 70+ or at least profitable. one thing highly likely is he wont try to supress oil, thus the post below is thinking of buying at 1.45. cause at this price there is so much room for regrowth and very little downside.

after all its like a pro and con thing for the investors. trump take the hot seat is going to be good for oil at the end of the day.

Posted: November 11, 2016 12:13 am
Posted by: @beidou

But heard that he is going to encourage oil extraction from American soil throughout the whole country, This will increase volume of oil produced and it will depress oil price world wide.

 
Posted : 11/11/2016 12:52 am
(@sgtrader18)
Posts: 106
Estimable Member
 

very likely he will allow shale oil to operate further, given now he has to prove a lot of people wrong but as a businessman he will most likely going to try to push the price up first, I guess tthat is why oil jump when the news of him taking the oval office came out. this fuel people to move back into oil, with hopes that he will push the oil back up to 70+ or at least profitable. one thing highly likely is he wont try to supress oil, thus the post below is thinking of buying at 1.45. cause at this price there is so much room for regrowth and very little downside.

after all its like a pro and con thing for the investors. trump take the hot seat is going to be good for oil at the end of the day.

Posted: November 11, 2016 12:13 am
Posted by: @beidou

But heard that he is going to encourage oil extraction from American soil throughout the whole country, This will increase volume of oil produced and it will depress oil price world wide.

 
Posted : 11/11/2016 12:46 am
(@qanghoo)
Posts: 5029
Illustrious Member
 

What has changed? Nothing. Just chng kays changing tune, that' s all. That' s the reality of the stock mkt - ruled by invisible hands way above fundamentals .....

Posted: November 11, 2016 8:22 am
Posted by: @breadpitt

Back by popular demands, I think Sembmarine is going to re-launch the most favourable game of investing that won over many investors, syndicates and BB's.
That is the playing range between $1.50 to $1.85. Enjoy the game! : )

 
Posted : 11/11/2016 12:45 am
(@breadpitt)
Posts: 83
Trusted Member
 

Back by popular demands, I think Sembmarine is going to re-launch the most favourable game of investing that won over many investors, syndicates and BB's.
That is the playing range between $1.50 to $1.85. Enjoy the game! : )

 
Posted : 11/11/2016 12:22 am
(@beidou)
Posts: 8
Eminent Member
 

But heard that he is going to encourage oil extraction from American soil throughout the whole country, This will increase volume of oil produced and it will depress oil price world wide.

 
Posted : 10/11/2016 4:13 pm
 C Dw
(@naval_architect)
Posts: 2
New Member
 

Trump election (plus points for oil price)

1) he is anti renewable energy

2) potential Middle East instabilities?

I'd say the oil market had ran out of bullets for any worse case scenario, now let's see how trump perform

Long term, I'm bullish for oil price, I might try to load in few lots tomorrow , if I can get it at 1.45 or so

 
Posted : 10/11/2016 11:01 am
Page 1 / 90
Share:
Scroll to Top