Yes agreed, don' t try it. Those who wanna buy more to vote no, pls think twice.
I' m sharing my analysis as those are some of the critical issues but yet not properly addressed in the mainstream. I may not be right.
Please do your own research and make your own call.
Wrong time, wrong use. Don' t try it. Lol.
If those have money can buy more to vote no. Haha
Wrong time, wrong use. Don' t try it. Lol.
If those have money can buy more to vote no. Haha
If those have money can buy more to vote no. Haha
This is a very good piece. Thx. Like most of those vested, I' ve also sensed that the offeror is engaged in scre-mongering to pressure us into selling cheap. Seem such a common tactic here. Any downside risks seem imaginary rather than real. Since when have fares here not kept up with profitability? To me, the fare formula has all cost angles covered. N, like u said, with steady population growth projected over the next 15 yrs (n even beyond that - to longer projections of a population of 9.5 mil), this hazing of an almost sure bet, seems a shameful smoke screen. So, all in all, the future of SMRT is really not bleak even given anticipated short-term hicups which ostensibly is the rationale for the privatisation. With this seemingly as an appropriate backdrop for valuation, one doubts if the 1.68 valuation seems more than a wee bit conservative. DYODD as always.
Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company.What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.
Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:
1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?
2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects?
With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come?
3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare?
SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP!
Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html
Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line?
As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53
Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1.
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.
As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.
6. $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value?
They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:
Tigerair
SIA offered a final 45% premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html
Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X
NOL
France' s CMA CGM offered a 49% premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol
NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m
It had not been paying dividends since 2011.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03
OSIM
Osim CEO offered a premium of about 38.8% and 40.6% to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods.
OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.
OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9
https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23
SMRT
After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of 8.7% over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.
Make your own call.
I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad
Yup I' m going to make a stand and not be bullied by this lousy deal. Will go down to the EGM and vote if they don' t allow mail in votes.
Agree! Good analysis...We should vote against!
Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company.What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.
Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:
1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?
2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects?
With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come?
3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare?
SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP!
Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html
Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line?
As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53
Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1.
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.
As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.
6. $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value?
They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:
Tigerair
SIA offered a final 45% premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html
Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X
NOL
France' s CMA CGM offered a 49% premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol
NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m
It had not been paying dividends since 2011.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03
OSIM
Osim CEO offered a premium of about 38.8% and 40.6% to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods.
OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.
OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9
https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23
SMRT
After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of 8.7% over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.
Make your own call.
one more point to add .... TH do make money losing business ... look at NOL ... national serivice to sell at discount to CMA ...
so totally possible for TH to riase the buy out price .... CPF money ... our money.
Thanks for your analysis Do agree TH can increase profitability simply by raising fair .. which i think they have the intention to do so.... if not SG would already have nationalised it instead of privatised it ...... i have a few comments to add to your point ....1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?SMRT upside is capped after the NRFF downside is taken my SMRT. Upside taken by LTA. Would like to hear why you think otherwise. Profit of SMRT in recent 2-3 years is from their non rail which contribute a very huge percentage compared to rail.
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.divident is good in the past ... at the expense of the problem we are facing now .... hence it is not sustainable .... recent year divident is in the range of 1.5%
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.SMRT market cap is bigger then SBS by more then 3 times.
Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company.What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.
Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:
1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?
2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects?
With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come?
3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare?
SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP!
Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html
Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line?
As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53
Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1.
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.
As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.
6. $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value?
They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:
Tigerair
SIA offered a final 45% premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html
Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X
NOL
France' s CMA CGM offered a 49% premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol
NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m
It had not been paying dividends since 2011.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03
OSIM
Osim CEO offered a premium of about 38.8% and 40.6% to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods.
OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.
OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9
https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23
SMRT
After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of 8.7% over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.
Make your own call.
Thanks for your analysis Do agree TH can increase profitability simply by raising fair .. which i think they have the intention to do so.... if not SG would already have nationalised it instead of privatised it ...... i have a few comments to add to your point ....
1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?
SMRT upside is capped after the NRFF downside is taken my SMRT. Upside taken by LTA. Would like to hear why you think otherwise. Profit of SMRT in recent 2-3 years is from their non rail which contribute a very huge percentage compared to rail.
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.
divident is good in the past ... at the expense of the problem we are facing now .... hence it is not sustainable .... recent year divident is in the range of 1.5%
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.
SMRT market cap is bigger then SBS by more then 3 times.
Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company.What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.
Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:
1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?
2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects?
With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come?
3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare?
SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP!
Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html
Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line?
As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53
Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1.
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.
As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.
6. $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value?
They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:
Tigerair
SIA offered a final 45% premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html
Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X
NOL
France' s CMA CGM offered a 49% premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol
NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m
It had not been paying dividends since 2011.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03
OSIM
Osim CEO offered a premium of about 38.8% and 40.6% to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods.
OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.
OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9
https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23
SMRT
After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of 8.7% over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.
Make your own call.
I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad
I bought a few lots last week just to vote No! Ask Temasek go and f spider. Only dare to bully people within Singapore. Go out of Singapore maciam mouse.
Agree! Good analysis...
We should vote against!
Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company.What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.
Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:
1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?
2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects?
With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come?
3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare?
SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP!
Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html
Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line?
As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53
Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1.
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.
As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.
6. $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value?
They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:
Tigerair
SIA offered a final 45% premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html
Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X
NOL
France' s CMA CGM offered a 49% premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol
NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m
It had not been paying dividends since 2011.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03
OSIM
Osim CEO offered a premium of about 38.8% and 40.6% to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods.
OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.
OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9
https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23
SMRT
After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of 8.7% over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.
Make your own call.
I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad
10% premium very good liao. Cos this guy assets only choo choo trains
Lol .but fares gonna go up after being privatised. Why suck own people like that?
Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company.What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.
Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:
1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?
2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects?
With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come?
3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare?
SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP!
Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html
Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line?
As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53
Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1.
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.
As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.
6. $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value?
They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:
Tigerair
SIA offered a final 45% premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html
Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X
NOL
France' s CMA CGM offered a 49% premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol
NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m
It had not been paying dividends since 2011.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03
OSIM
Osim CEO offered a premium of about 38.8% and 40.6% to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods.
OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.
OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9
https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23
SMRT
After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of 8.7% over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.
Make your own call.
I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad
hope all those old folks, uncles and aunties could come here and read your analysis.
there are too many fear mongering articles spreading around by those anal sent by TH. mostly likelty those anal is buying a huge amount of stocks betting that the deal will be through. And is the stock price purposely pushed down for them to collect?
Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company.What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.
Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:
1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?
2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects?
With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come?
3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare?
SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP!
Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html
Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line?
As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53
Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1.
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.
As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.
6. $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value?
They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:
Tigerair
SIA offered a final 45% premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html
Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X
NOL
France' s CMA CGM offered a 49% premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol
NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m
It had not been paying dividends since 2011.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03
OSIM
Osim CEO offered a premium of about 38.8% and 40.6% to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods.
OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.
OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9
https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23
SMRT
After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of 8.7% over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.
Make your own call.
I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad
Precisely they know a lot of SMRT shareholders are old folks, uncles and aunties who are MIW supporters, that' s why they are confident their cheap offer has a high chance of acceptance. Do you think they care? They are a profit driven investment company.
What really disgusting is the fear mongering which smoked people from having a clear vision.
Here are some of the critical issues which are not properly addressed by our mainstream news and analysts:
1. Why accept a losing deal?
If SMRT' s financial position is even worse off under the NRFF according to all analysts, then why would TH, a savvy investor as the majority shareholder accept the deal?
2. Stronger Balance Sheet to Bid for more Projects?
With the $1b to payoff debts and taxes, their balance sheet will be much stronger to bid for any new upcoming projects like the HSR, Thomson-East Coast Line, Cross Island Line and many more to come?
3. Downside risk of ridership and transport fare?
SMRT management cited that they are unable to guarantee the ridership and transport fare, which are the main components of their revenue and earnings. However, with government actively promoting car lite and making it highly unaffordable to own a car, the only way for public transport ridership is UP!
Not forgetting the 6.9m population target? And what about the projected surge of tourists&rsquo arrival when the ASEAN Open Skies agreement comes through? http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-to-reap/2530570.html
Why do you think they want to build T4 & T5 and plan to connect Changi Airport to the new Thomson-East Coast Line?
As for transport fare, it is only a matter of time they increase it again? So, given all these favorable conditions, how can they lose?
4. Defensive business with solid profit and dividend track record
SMRT is a defensive cash cow that has a solid track record of making profits and paying dividends consistently every year even during the worst financial crisis in year 2008-9.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/S53
Up till now, no one is able to give a clear picture of how this profit margin sharing cap of 5% will impact to SMRT&rsquo s profits and dividends policy under NRFF. If it is really true it will severely impact to SMRT profits and dividend track record, then the question will be back to pointer 1.
5. Why SMRT share price lagged behind its local and regional peers?
One of the main reason why SMRT share price lagged behind is due to its frequent train breakdown and not because it is not profitable.
As minority shareholders, we do not have any control over who they appointed as CEO. So is this the fault of minority shareholders that they installed people like Saw PH and Desmond K as CEO?
In fact, SMRT share price might be priced even higher than SBS Transit today if there are no frequent train breakdowns and lead by a more competent management? For information, SBS transit last closing price was $2.50 as at 22Jul16, 1.5 times of SMRT. SBS Transit is a smaller transport operator as compared to SMRT.
6. $1.68 (Yi Lu Fa), fair value?
They cited that $1.68 is a fair value for SMRT. Let&rsquo s look at some recent high profile companies takeover cases:
Tigerair
SIA offered a final 45% premium to Tigerair&rsquo s last trading price before the takeover announcement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/sia-declares-offer-for/2414654.html
Bear in mind Tigerair was a money losing business and had not paid any dividends to its shareholders for the past few years before the takeover. What they offered were rights issues ever since they listed.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/J7X
NOL
France' s CMA CGM offered a 49% premium over NOL' s last unaffected traded share price.
http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol
NOL was not in a rosy financial position and reported net loss in 1Q2016.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nol-sinks-to-deeper-q1-net-loss-of-us105m
It had not been paying dividends since 2011.
https://www.dividends.sg/view/N03
OSIM
Osim CEO offered a premium of about 38.8% and 40.6% to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) a share for the corresponding one-month and three-month periods.
OSIM reported a big slump in profit early this year.
OSIM didn&rsquo t have a consistent dividend track records like SMRT. No dividends were paid during financial crisis in year 2008-9
https://www.dividends.sg/view/O23
SMRT
After taking into consideration of the above takeover cases, for TH to offer a miserable premium of 8.7% over its last unaffected trading price for a defensive cash cow like SMRT is....sorry to say this but it' s simply lowballing. Yi lu fa yes to TH but not to the rest of shareholders.
Make your own call.
I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad.
Yes, I remember clearly he said that we might not see each other again next year. One shareholder even expressed her fear if they are going to do a NOL since he said that? But never in our minority shareholders' mind would expect them to offer a lowball deal, nothing even close to NOL 49% above premium of the last unaffected traded price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nolThe C, Koh also said during the recent AGM that the NRFF should be announced very soon by next year. One prominent shareholder tried to press Koh for more details of the NRFF, but Koh repeatedly answered as if he is a broken tape recorder " wait for govt announcement" .
Therefore I also don' t believe that TH only know about this deal after the announcement.
If you noticed, every time someone talk unfavourably about the offer, there will be comments if we don' t accept the offer, we shall face a worst fate of share price drop to $1 or even worse $0.80 now. Fear mongering to the max?
Now, if the offer failed and resulted to share price plunge, wouldn' t TH as a majority shareholder be at a disadvantage too? So why should TH accept the NRFF deal if this is a losing deal like what all analysts claim?
Do you notice they are trying to shift the focus of voting for the NRFF to TH offer? Which voting comes first now? NRFF or TH buyback offer come first? If NRFF voting come first since it was announced earlier, wouldn' t it make sense for shareholders to reject the deal? But since TH as the majority SH accept the NRFF deal, so does that means the rest of shareholders no need to vote for NRFF anymore?
I' m not sure. It' s very interesting isn' t it SIAS has been very quiet and not much said. Only Citi has a contararian view. They said offer too low. Will have to wait for details. I should think this offer would have to be debated in parliament or something!! Wonder which company they will take private next. singtel, keppel...........! Lelong, lelong. Oh and of course " scheme of arrangement" and not general offer so absolutely no chance of an increase!!!
Do they still need 90% acceptance to acquire compulsorily and delist from SGX? If so I don't care about the generous offer price..
Wow seems like there is a possibility. Fingers crossed. Press has been rather quiet. Notice no ministers saying anything!! I' m vested at 1.47. will wait till last minute to submit but am waiting to see if SIAS will say anything like they did for Tiger.
I just wish they would have given a better deal to the thousands of Singaporean uncles and aunties who believed in the SGP GLC growth story who bought SMRT for their retirement income. Sad.
Yes, I remember clearly he said that we might not see each other again next year. One shareholder even expressed her fear if they are going to do a NOL since he said that? But never in our minority shareholders' mind would expect them to offer a lowball deal, nothing even close to NOL 49% above premium of the last unaffected traded price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nolThe C, Koh also said during the recent AGM that the NRFF should be announced very soon by next year. One prominent shareholder tried to press Koh for more details of the NRFF, but Koh repeatedly answered as if he is a broken tape recorder " wait for govt announcement" .
Therefore I also don' t believe that TH only know about this deal after the announcement.
If you noticed, every time someone talk unfavourably about the offer, there will be comments if we don' t accept the offer, we shall face a worst fate of share price drop to $1 or even worse $0.80 now. Fear mongering to the max?
Now, if the offer failed and resulted to share price plunge, wouldn' t TH as a majority shareholder be at a disadvantage too? So why should TH accept the NRFF deal if this is a losing deal like what all analysts claim?
Do you notice they are trying to shift the focus of voting for the NRFF to TH offer? Which voting comes first now? NRFF or TH buyback offer come first? If NRFF voting come first since it was announced earlier, wouldn' t it make sense for shareholders to reject the deal? But since TH as the majority SH accept the NRFF deal, so does that means the rest of shareholders no need to vote for NRFF anymore?
This is a scheme arrangement, and not a voluntary cash offer. Hence there will not be any revision to offer prices nor will they be able to buy cheaply from the open market even though the market price is cheaper than what they have offered. 75% shareholder's approval from shareholders present and voting "for" will be required at the scheme meeting for the scheme arrangement to go through. The meeting will most likely be in October. There will be an EGM before that though, probably in August/early September , from what I heard. Insiders already knew about what's going on in the company but they refused to disclose when asked about what's the resolutions of the EGM about. So it's all bullshit when T said they only knew about what happened last minute lol. Furthermore, D also said at the July AGM to a shareholder during the Q&A that "we might not see each other next year again". Lol
Yes, I remember clearly he said that we might not see each other again next year. One shareholder even expressed her fear if they are going to do a NOL since he said that? But never in our minority shareholders' mind would expect them to offer a lowball deal, nothing even close to NOL 49% above premium of the last unaffected traded price. http://www.todayonline.com/business/cma-proceeds-s34-billion-offer-nol
The C, Koh also said during the recent AGM that the NRFF should be announced very soon by next year. One prominent shareholder tried to press Koh for more details of the NRFF, but Koh repeatedly answered as if he is a broken tape recorder " wait for govt announcement" .
Therefore I also don' t believe that TH only know about this deal after the announcement.
If you noticed, every time someone talk unfavourably about the offer, there will be comments if we don' t accept the offer, we shall face a worst fate of share price drop to $1 or even worse $0.80 now. Fear mongering to the max?
Now, if the offer failed and resulted to share price plunge, wouldn' t TH as a majority shareholder be at a disadvantage too? So why should TH accept the NRFF deal if this is a losing deal like what all analysts claim?
Do you notice they are trying to shift the focus of voting for the NRFF to TH offer? Which voting comes first now? NRFF or TH buyback offer come first? If NRFF voting come first since it was announced earlier, wouldn' t it make sense for shareholders to reject the deal? But since TH as the majority SH accept the NRFF deal, so does that means the rest of shareholders no need to vote for NRFF anymore?
This is a scheme arrangement, and not a voluntary cash offer. Hence there will not be any revision to offer prices nor will they be able to buy cheaply from the open market even though the market price is cheaper than what they have offered. 75% shareholder's approval from shareholders present and voting "for" will be required at the scheme meeting for the scheme arrangement to go through. The meeting will most likely be in October. There will be an EGM before that though, probably in August/early September , from what I heard. Insiders already knew about what's going on in the company but they refused to disclose when asked about what's the resolutions of the EGM about. So it's all bullshit when T said they only knew about what happened last minute lol. Furthermore, D also said at the July AGM to a shareholder during the Q&A that "we might not see each other next year again". Lol
