support oil price, and the mkt will be calmer.
do we really need to see close to 16000? before this is over.very jiat lat.
DJ going red any moment .....
FED also chuat already .....
Fed' s Kaplan: four hikes not a sure thing in 2016
EconomyJan 11, 2016 09:55PM ETBy Ann Saphir
Dallas (Reuters) - Four U.S. interest-rate hikes are " not baked in the cake" for the Federal Reserve this year, particularly given global stock market volatility set off by fears over a cooling Chinese economy, a top Fed official said on Monday.
The Fed raised rates in December, the first rate hike in almost a decade and ending a seven-year stretch in which rates were held at a near-zero level in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.
Investors are now focused on when the next rate hike will be, with economists predicting March.
Fed officials overall expect four rate hikes this year, according to the median of their forecasts from December.
" This is an unusual start to the year, obviously," Robert Kaplan, the Dallas Fed' s new president, told reporters after a talk here.
Concern about slowing growth in China roiled world markets in August and forced the Fed to hold off raising interest rates in September. This year has started off with global markets again rocked by plunges in Chinese stock markets, a fall in the yuan and subsequent heavy intervention by the Chinese authorities to push the yuan back up.
" We went through this in August and September, we paused, we watched, we let events unfold, which is the right way to handle it, and we saw ultimately that underlying economic conditions remained intact and solvent," Kaplan said.
" There' s no substitute for time in assessing economic data as it unfolds," Kaplan told reporters.
Kaplan said he is not sure there will be enough economic data before the Fed' s next policy meeting in late January to justify raising rates then, but " between now and March I think there will be."
Kaplan' s comments differ somewhat from those earlier in the day from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who said there may not be enough data even by March to make a call for raising rates.
Still, Kaplan, who was a longtime banker for Goldman Sachs (N:GS), said he was withholding judgment about the implications of China' s market swings for the U.S. economy.
" We have to pay attention to underlying economic conditions and we certainly have to watch what' s going on with financial conditions," he said, adding that markets can swing one way one week and another the next.
" You got to give it some time to see how things unfold," he said.
Oil may head back to 37/39 then go back dwn again to 25/28, that is what i read about, then stock will continue it march to a new all time high for the dow,
STI , i dont knw, but i guess it following HK go nowhere.LOL
all these highly paid advisors just read & copy & paste each other calls.
RBS cries ' sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears
who here has access to private banking advisors?
what are they are suggesting? care to share?
u shd be doing yr shopping in NY, not here in SGX, this place is finish. No one will come to buy yr midcap or small cap, it is gone case.
But I haven't finish my CNY shopping yet leh...so good to dilly dally and slide a bit more first
I think correction is over for now for dow at 16100/16300. If tonite 300 pts up, then bear better run fast.
I see 16200 strong , but i doubt sti will follow along.
I think correction is over for now for dow at 16100/16300. If tonite 300 pts up, then bear better run fast.
But I haven't finish my CNY shopping yet leh...so good to dilly dally and slide a bit more first
I think correction is over for now for dow at 16100/16300. If tonite 300 pts up, then bear better run fast.
I think correction is over for now for dow at 16100/16300. If tonite 300 pts up, then bear better run fast.
LATEST NEWS, CORPORATE
Investors are opting to stay in invested in Singapore despite lower confidence in the market
January 12, 2016: 7:38 PM
Despite being less optimistic on the outlook for the Singapore and global economic environment in the next six months, most investors are still planning to maintain their holdings in the local stock market, a JP Morgan Asset Management survey on investor confidence revealed.
Released Jan 12, the survey showed that investors' confidence in the Singapore market and economy for the first half of the year had dropped to its lowest level in since June 2012, with many citing weak global demand and slower than expected GDP growth in Singapore as the main reasons for the poor sentiment.
Yet, at least 85% of those surveyed plan to stay invested in the Singapore stock market, with almost half citing capital preservation as their main objective for maintaining their positions. But will things improve in the months ahead?
More volatility
To be sure, the Singapore Straits Times Index is down by around 5% in the two weeks since the start of the year, to a low of 2,692 points Jan 12. And, things will likely remain challenging for the first six months for the year .
" Singapore is a very open economy and global trade has not yet shown signs of stabilising," says Tai Hui, chief strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.
On the domestic front, the correction in the property market will likely continue in 1H2016, while growth in bank net interest margins will likely be slow on the back of slower lending momentum. " So, investors need to be mentally prepared for more volatility in the Singapore equity market in 2016, " says Tai. Still, Tai reckons investors are doing the right thing by staying invested in the Singapore stock market." In the past week, even though the China stock market crashed twice, from a fundamental perspective things are not that bad. Sure, manufacturing numbers are down, but that is not unexpected, " he says.
" There is a lot of sentiment driving the market which we would not take as a signal of what is actually happening in the Chinese economy."
Go for high yield
The way Tai sees it, investors have no way of predicting how the market will turn in the short term. " So the risk is that by shying away or exiting the market now, things may then pick up and investors might miss good capital appreciation opportunities , " he says.
But while trying to time the market is futile given the volatility, staying invested or rechannelling funds into high yield stocks in the current environment might be a good idea. " We can not predict where stock prices will go given the volatility. But what we have more confidence in is how much cash flows we will get from dividends, which do not swing much in the short term, " Tai says.
While growth stocks are not expected to offer much returns this year, Singapore has a lot of good high yield stocks that will help support returns until things in China and the commodity markets improve. " Now is not the time to abandon high yield equities," Tai adds.
Highlight
Global growth intact despite China, oil price crash, says UBS' s Donovan
January 12, 2016: 3:45 PM
Despite the crash of China' s stock market and sliding price of crude oil, global growth could turn out to be more robust than expected this year given improvements in the US and Europe, UBS economist Paul Donovan told reporters at a Jan 11 conference.
After accounting for the recovering economies of the US and Europe against slower growth in China and the rest of Asia, global growth will likely come between 3.25% and 3.5%, Donovan said.
Already, consumers are spending more in the US, where employment and wages have already begun to rise in support of higher economic activity.
Meanwhile, in Europe, banks are raising the number of loans extended to the private sector on the back of favourable monetary policies, while the public sector is expected to thrive on the back of higher fiscal spending.
Higher demand from the West is also supportive of intra-Asian trade and exports, which has been shrinking because China is now outsourcing less to the rest of the region and making more goods domestically.
In addition, the availability of credit in Asia has also fallen as banks, wary of ballooning debt levels in the region, scale back on lending. " The rapid rise in consumer debt in China, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand has led to a level of private sector debt that can not rise further any longer and bank policies will be tailored against further credit growth, " said Donovan.
" In view of slower growth in China, the moderation of growth in the rest of Asia will continue into 2016," Donovan said. He added, however, that the recovery in the US and Europe will more than offset that slowdown, resulting in positive global economic growth this year.
Policy moves
In that light, the US Federal Reserve is expected to carry out its four rounds of rate hikes this year, but at a gentle pace of 0.25% each time to account for Asia' s softer growth. That' s a total of 1% in 2016, compared to the Fed' s projected inflation level of 1.5% -2% by year end.
" By raising rates by 1% this year, the Fed is also operating at just half its normal pace, which involves eight rounds of rate hikes," Donovan said. " The Fed is still keeping to a slower policy tightening stance as global growth remains uncertain. "
The Europe Central Bank, too, is keeping its policy rates and the size of its bond-buying program unchanged this year despite higher inflation, targeted to hit 1.5% by year end.
Against that backdrop, UBS has a forecast for the euro to strengthen to 1.15 per US dollar by year end compared to 1.09 currently, as it sees limited upside to the US dollar this year. It also sees no more than a further 5% depreciation in the renminbi against the greenback over the same period, from 6.57 renminbi per US dollar currently.
my theory is the opposite 1. with the " smart" government encouraging ppl to mortgage their house take loans to invest in shares. before chinese new year, occasion for celebration, wedding or whatever that adds to the needs of liquid cash. Taking the bad market sentiments into consideration, super likely for the market to crash or at least there would be a death spiral effect to lingering for some time. chinese market too inflated, this is the overdue correction. But fear might cause it to plunge more than expected.
Here is a trading theme, my hypothesis only ah. ........The recent massive correction in the chinese mkts have wipe out many retailers saving. this coupled with the chinese new year just under 3 weeks away is creating a under current of unrest in the chinese populous. the chinese govt knows this and to defuse the high potential of significantly increase in crime rate and disturbance, they will be mount a coordinated effort to prop up the mkts. so dyodd and hoot the heavily beaten down counters。 。 。 。 Huat Ah!
Here is a trading theme, my hypothesis only ah. ........The recent massive correction in the chinese mkts have wipe out many retailers saving. this coupled with the chinese new year just under 3 weeks away is creating a under current of unrest in the chinese populous. the chinese govt knows this and to defuse the high potential of significantly increase in crime rate and disturbance, they will be mount a coordinated effort to prop up the mkts. so dyodd and hoot the heavily beaten down counters。 。 。 。 Huat Ah!
Market Close
STI ends 0.63% lower at 2,691.78
January 12, 2016: 5:20 PM
Singapore equities closed weaker on Tuesday, against a backdrop of mixed trading in Asian markets, a protracted rout in oil prices, and a surge in borrowing rate for the offshore yuan.
The Nikkei 225 Index slumped 2.71%, while the KOSPI and Hang Seng Indices slipped 0.21% and 0.89% respectively. Meanwhile, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Indices registered respective gains of 0.20% and 0.39%.
The Straits Times Index (STI) ended the day 0.63% lower at 2,691.78, after trading between 2,687.91 and 2,721.47. Market breadth was negative. Excluding warrants, decliners outnumbered gainers 273 to 148.
A total of 1.75 billion shares worth about $ 1.02 billion changed hands, giving an average of 58 cents per share for the entire market.
Luzhou Bio-chem Technology (Valuation: 0.90, Fundamental: 0.35), China Sports International (Valuation: 0.90, Fundamental: 1.65), Golden Agri-Resources (Valuation: 1.40, Fundamental: 0.55), Ezra Holdings (Valuation: 1.10, Fundamental : 0.45), and LionGold Corp (Valuation: 0.90, Fundamental: 0.40) were among the most actively traded counters.
Among STI components, Golden Agri-Resources climbed 4.2% to 37 cents, while StarHub (Valuation: 1.70, Fundamental: 1.55) gained 1.1% to $ 3.58 Meanwhile, Keppel Corp. (Valuation: 2.40, Fundamental: 1.30) plunged 7% to $ 5.15 , while Sembcorp Marine (Valuation: 1.80, Fundamental: 1.10) slipped 4.1% to $ 1.51.
LionGold Corp surged 20% to 0.6 cents. The company on Monday announced that it will issue about 138.3 million conversion shares after the subscriber exercised its right to convert 13 of 2.5% redeemable convertible bonds due 2018.
Cheung Woh Technologies (Valuation: 3.00, Fundamental: 2.30). Plummeted 13% to 20 cents The hard disk drive components manufacturer' s 3Q earnings slid to $ 1.6 million from $ 3.9 million a year earlier This came on the back of higher materials and overhead costs incurred. in China, as well as the appreciation of renminbi against the Singapore dollar.
Luzhou Bio-chem Technology jumped 22.7% to 5.4 cents. The producer of corn starch and by-products was last Tuesday queried by the Singapore Exchange over unusual trading activity in its shares. Luzhou has responded that it is not aware of any information not previously announced which might explain the trading.
Ezra Holdings tumbled 7.1% to 7.9 cents. The offshore contractor last Friday issued a profit guidance with respect to the financial results for 1QFY2016 ended Nov. Ezra says the quarter is expected to show a net loss, mainly attributable to the continuing depressed state of the oil and gas industry which has impacted activities in the global offshore marine and subsea industry.
